Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development & Collaborative Innovation Center on Yellow River Civilization Jointly Built by Henan Province and Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, China.
College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Oct 28;19(21):14089. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192114089.
Metropolitan areas are the main spatial units sustaining development. Investigating internal factor changes in metropolitan areas are of great significance for improving the quality of development in these areas. As an emerging national central city of China, Zhengzhou has experienced rapid urban expansion and urbanization. In this study, principal component analysis and the model and Geodetector model were used to comprehensively analyze the influencing factors of land use change in Zhengzhou from 1980 to 2015. Based on the CA-Markov model, we improved the accuracy of multi-criteria evaluation of suitability factors and simulated land use change in 2015. The results show that land use conversions in the study area between 1980 and 2015 were frequent, with the areas of farmland, woodland, grassland, water, and unused land decreasing by 5.00%, 17.12%, 21.59%, 18.31%, and 94.48%, respectively, while construction land increased by 53.61%. The key influences on land use change are the urbanization and growth of residential or non-agricultural populations. In 2035, the area of farmland in the study area will decrease by 11.09% compared with that in 2015 and construction land will increase by 38.94%, while the area of other land use types will not significantly change. Zhengzhou, as the center city, forms a diamond-shaped core development area of Zhengzhou-Kaifeng-Xinxiang-Jiaozuo, while Xuchang is considered an independent sub-center uniting the surrounding cities for expansion. With its radiation power of unipolar core development for many years and the developmental momentum of Zhengzhou-Kaifeng integration, Zhengzhou city jointly drives the economic development of the surrounding cities. The protection of farmland and control of the expansion of construction land are the major challenges for the Zhengzhou metropolitan area to achieve sustainable development.
城市是支撑发展的主要空间单元，研究城市内部因子变化对提升城市发展质量具有重要意义。郑州作为中国新兴的国家中心城市，经历了快速的城市扩张和城市化进程。本研究采用主成分分析、模型和地理探测器模型，综合分析了 1980—2015 年郑州市土地利用变化的影响因素。基于 CA-Markov 模型，改进了多准则评价适宜性因子的精度，并对 2015 年土地利用变化进行了模拟。结果表明：研究区 1980—2015 年土地利用转换频繁，耕地、林地、草地、水域和未利用地面积分别减少了 5.00%、17.12%、21.59%、18.31%和 94.48%，建设用地面积增加了 53.61%。影响土地利用变化的关键因素是城市人口和非农业人口的增长。2035 年，研究区耕地面积比 2015 年减少 11.09%，建设用地面积增加 38.94%，其他土地利用类型面积变化不明显。郑州作为中心城市，形成了郑汴新焦的菱形核心发展区，许昌则作为独立的次中心连接周边城市向外扩张。郑州凭借多年的单极核心发展辐射力以及郑汴一体化发展势头，共同带动了周边城市的经济发展。保护耕地和控制建设用地扩张是郑州都市圈实现可持续发展面临的主要挑战。
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