A COVID-19 Lesson: Better Health Emergency Preparedness Standards Are Needed.

This article reports on an assessment of the value of 4 widely recognized standards of health sector emergency preparedness as predictors of effective preparedness for, and response to, the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. The standards are sponsored by the National Health Security Preparedness Index (NHSPI), the Trust for America's Health (TFAH), the Emergency Management Accreditation Program (EMAP), and the Public Health Accreditation Board (PHAB). The measure of effectiveness was states' cumulative COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 population, from January 21, 2020, through January 20, 2022. Linear regression analysis found no statistically significant associations when controlling for 3 intervening variables. Cross-tabulation of states' preparedness status with their COVID-19 death rates found that high NHSPI and TFAH preparedness scores were generally, but not uniformly, associated with lower death rates. EMAP and PHAB accreditation had negligible association with low or high death rates. Lack of accreditation was associated with lower death rates. Higher prior state public health spending related to COVID-19 preparedness and higher state household income, an indicator of state economic strength, were associated with lower death rates. States with Democratic control of the legislative and executive branches of government generally had substantially lower death rates than states with Republican control. A science-based, practice-oriented research initiative is recommended to improve the predictive power of health sector preparedness standards and to enhance protection for US residents from large-scale future health threats.