College of Geography Science, Shanxi Normal University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China.
PLoS One. 2022 Nov 15;17(11):e0265810. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0265810. eCollection 2022.
Land ecological security is the core of regional coordinated economic development and land ecological security planning. In this paper, with Shenzhen as the research area, 28 evaluation indicators were selected from 5 dimensions based on the DPSIR model to construct an indicator system for land ecological security evaluation, so as to evaluate the land ecological security status in the research area from 2009 to 2019. Based on the TOPSIS evaluation model, regional levels were determined, and finally the GM (1,1) model was adopted to scientifically predict the land ecological security system of Shenzhen from 2020 to 2025. The results showed that: (1) from the perspective of the main influencing factors, the weight of 16 indicators of Shenzhen's land ecological security exceeds 0.03, including the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (D5) and Engel coefficient (I4). These factors are the main factors that have led to the deterioration of land ecological security in Shenzhen in the past decade; (2) comprehensive situation analysis revealed that from 2009 to 2019, the level of land ecological security in Shenzhen exhibited an increasing trend overall, but the land ecological security in Shenzhen still needs to be greatly improved; (3) regarding various subsystems, from 2009 to 2019, except the pressure subsystem which was in a downward trend, other subsystems showed a fluctuating and upward trend; (4) after modeling and calculation using the GM (1,1) model, it was concluded that most of the indicator factors are in a slow growing trend with the social and economic development of Shenzhen, but severe land ecological problem still exists. The research result is expected to provide a reference for the stable and sustainable development of society and economy and regional land ecosystem protection.
土地生态安全是区域协调经济发展和土地生态安全规划的核心。本文以深圳市为研究区，基于 DPSIR 模型，从 5 个维度选取 28 个评价指标，构建土地生态安全评价指标体系，对研究区 2009-2019 年土地生态安全状况进行评价。基于逼近理想解排序法（TOPSIS）评价模型确定区域等级，并采用灰色预测模型 GM（1,1）对深圳市 2020-2025 年土地生态安全系统进行科学预测。结果表明：（1）从主要影响因素来看，深圳市土地生态安全的 16 项指标权重均超过 0.03，包括农业、林业、牧业、渔业总产值（D5）和恩格尔系数（I4）等，这些因素是导致深圳市近十年来土地生态安全状况恶化的主要因素；（2）综合态势分析表明，2009-2019 年深圳市土地生态安全水平整体呈上升趋势，但深圳市土地生态安全仍需大力改善；（3）各子系统方面，2009-2019 年除压力子系统呈下降趋势外，其他子系统均呈波动上升趋势；（4）通过 GM（1,1）模型建模与计算，得出深圳市大部分指标因子随社会经济发展呈缓慢增长趋势，但土地生态问题依然严峻。研究结果可为深圳市社会经济稳定可持续发展和区域土地生态系统保护提供参考。
