Wang Yuan, Pan Zhou, Zhang Lanxin, Lu Yaling, Zhang Zengkai, Ren Jingzheng
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China.
State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC), School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Mar;30(11):28961-28974. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-24118-x. Epub 2022 Nov 19.
It is of great significance to identify the critical influential factors of pollutant emissions for emission mitigation. However, city disparity implies different priorities for regional mitigation. This study aims to estimate the consumption-based emissions of 309 prefecture-level cities in China based on the multi-region input-output table and the sectoral NOx emission inventory and investigate the emission transfer phenomenon among cities and sectors. In addition, a geographically weighted regression method is used to analyze the spatial heterogeneity in the driving factors of regional consumption-based emissions. The results reveal that the top 10 cities in consumption-based emissions account for 25.2% of emissions and contribute 22.6% to GDP. The consumption-based emissions are mainly driven by local demand (72.79%) at the regional level and by construction activities (94.43%) at the sectoral level. Besides, the results also show the spatial variances in contributions of driving forces to consumption-based emissions. Economic growth has been identified as the most important factor which promotes consumption-based emissions. However, disposable personal income, per capita road area, urbanization, and percentage of tertiary industry GDP are conducive to reduce consumption-based emissions in some cities of China. It could be concluded that policies without consideration of the emissions from a consumption perspective are difficult to achieve effective emission reduction.
识别污染物排放的关键影响因素对于减排具有重要意义。然而，城市差异意味着区域减排的优先事项不同。本研究旨在基于多区域投入产出表和部门氮氧化物排放清单估算中国309个地级市的基于消费的排放量，并研究城市和部门之间的排放转移现象。此外，采用地理加权回归方法分析区域基于消费的排放驱动因素的空间异质性。结果表明，基于消费的排放量排名前十的城市占排放量的25.2%，对GDP的贡献率为22.6%。区域层面基于消费的排放主要由本地需求驱动（72.79%），部门层面则由建筑活动驱动（94.43%）。此外，结果还显示了驱动因素对基于消费的排放贡献的空间差异。经济增长被认为是促进基于消费的排放的最重要因素。然而，个人可支配收入、人均道路面积、城市化水平和第三产业GDP占比在我国部分城市有利于减少基于消费的排放。可以得出结论，不考虑消费视角排放的政策难以实现有效的减排。
