A review of raptor carcass persistence trials and the practical implications for fatality estimation at wind farms.

Bird and bat turbine collision fatalities are a principal biodiversity impact at wind energy facilities. Raptors are a group at particular risk and often the focus of post-construction fatality monitoring programs. To estimate fatalities from detected carcasses requires correction for biases, including for carcasses that are removed or decompose before the following search. This is addressed through persistence trials, where carcasses are monitored until no longer detectable or the trial ends. Sourcing sufficient raptor carcasses for trials is challenging and surrogates that are typically used often have shorter persistence times than raptors. We collated information from raptor carcass persistence trials to evaluate consistencies between trials and assess the implications of using persistence values from other studies in wind facility fatality estimates. We compiled individual raptor carcass persistence times from published sources along with information on methods and location, estimated carcass persistence using GenEst and ran full fatality estimates using the carcass persistence estimates and mock datasets for other information. We compiled results from 22 trials from 17 sites across four terrestrial biomes, with trials lasting between 7 and 365 days and involving between 11 and 115 carcasses. Median carcass persistence was estimated at 420 days (90% confidence interval (CI) of 290 to 607 days) for the full dataset. Persistence time varied significantly between trials (trial-specific persistence estimates of 14 (5-42) days to 1,586 (816-3,084) days) but not between terrestrial biomes. We also found no significant relationship between either the number of carcasses in the trial or trial duration and estimated carcass persistence. Using a mock dataset with 12 observed fatalities, we estimated annual fatalities of 25 (16-33) or 26 (17-36) individuals using a 14- or 28-day search interval respectively using global dataset. When using trial-specific carcass persistence estimates and the same mock dataset, estimated annual fatalities ranged from 22 (14-30) to 37 (21-63) individuals for a 14-day search interval, and from 22 (15-31) to 47 (26-84) individuals for a 28-day search interval. The different raptor carcass persistence rates between trials translated to small effects on fatality estimates when using recommended search frequencies, since persistence rates were generally much longer than the search interval. When threatened raptor species, or raptors of particular concern to stakeholders are present, and no site-specific carcass persistence estimates are available, projects should use the lowest median carcass persistence estimate from this study to provide precautionary estimates of fatalities. At sites without threatened species, or where the risk of collision to raptors is low, the global median carcass persistence estimate from this review could be used to provide a plausible estimate for annual raptor fatalities.