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法国蓝舌病的时空与贸易出口风险分析:以中国为例

Spatio-temporal and trade export risk analysis of bluetongue disease in France: A case study of China.

作者信息

Yang Qiao-Ling, Zhang Shu-Wen, Qiu Song-Yin, Zhang Qiang, Chen Qin, Niu Bing

机构信息

School of Environmental and Chemical Engineering, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China.

School of Life Sciences, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China.

出版信息

Front Vet Sci. 2022 Nov 3;9:955366. doi: 10.3389/fvets.2022.955366. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

Bluetongue disease (BT) is a viral disease that can be introduced through imported animals and animal products, affecting local animal husbandry. In this study, the spatial and temporal patterns of BT outbreaks (outbreak: a BT infection in cattle, sheep, or goats on a farm, involving at least one infected animal) in France were analyzed and the risk of introducing bluetongue virus (BTV) into countries through trade was assessed. A spatiotemporal analysis of BT reported during the study period (2015-2018) showed that there were clustered outbreaks of BT in France in 2016 and 2017, with outbreaks concentrated from August to December. The outbreak moved eastward from the center of mainland France to surrounding countries. A semi-quantitative risk analysis framework was established by combining the likelihood assessment and consequence analysis of introducing BTV into trading countries through trade. Exemplified by China, the research showed that in the analysis of the likelihood of BTV from France being introduced into trading countries through live cattle trade, China imports a large number of live cattle, bringing high risks. The likelihood of introducing bovine semen into trading countries was similar to that of live cattle, but the harm caused by the trade in live cattle was higher than that caused by the trade in bovine semen. This risk analysis framework can provide a reference for other countries to quickly assess the risk of bluetongue transmission in import and export trade.

摘要

蓝舌病(BT)是一种可通过进口动物及动物产品传入的病毒性疾病,会影响当地畜牧业。在本研究中,分析了法国蓝舌病疫情(疫情:指农场中牛、羊或山羊发生的蓝舌病感染,涉及至少一头感染动物)的时空模式,并评估了通过贸易将蓝舌病病毒(BTV)传入各国的风险。对研究期间(2015 - 2018年)报告的蓝舌病进行的时空分析表明,2016年和2017年法国出现了蓝舌病聚集性疫情,疫情集中在8月至12月。疫情从法国大陆中部向东蔓延至周边国家。通过结合将BTV通过贸易传入贸易国的可能性评估和后果分析,建立了一个半定量风险分析框架。以中国为例,研究表明,在分析法国BTV通过活牛贸易传入贸易国的可能性时,中国大量进口活牛,带来高风险。将牛精液传入贸易国的可能性与活牛相似,但活牛贸易造成的危害高于牛精液贸易。这种风险分析框架可为其他国家快速评估进出口贸易中蓝舌病传播风险提供参考。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bf36/9669432/0def046738e0/fvets-09-955366-g0001.jpg

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本文引用的文献

1
Assessing the export trade risk of bluetongue virus serotypes 4 and 8 in France.
Risk Anal. 2023 Jun;43(6):1124-1136. doi: 10.1111/risa.14011. Epub 2022 Aug 22.
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Res Vet Sci. 2022 Dec 10;151:36-41. doi: 10.1016/j.rvsc.2022.07.003. Epub 2022 Jul 10.
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