The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Research Organization of Information and Systems, Tokyo, Japan.
Sci Rep. 2022 Nov 30;12(1):20683. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-25276-1.
Among the most important questions that await an answer in seismology, perhaps one is whether there is a correlation between the magnitudes of two successive seismic events. The answer to this question is considered of fundamental importance given the potential effect in forecasting models, such as Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence models. After a meta-analysis of 29 papers, we speculate that given the lack of studies carried out with realistic physical models and given the possible bias due to the lack of events recorded in the experimental seismic catalogs, important improvements are necessary on both fronts to be sure to provide a statistically relevant answer.
在地震学中有待回答的最重要问题中,也许有一个是两个连续地震事件的震级之间是否存在相关性。鉴于该问题在预测模型(如流行病型余震序列模型)中的潜在影响,这个问题的答案被认为至关重要。在对 29 篇论文进行元分析后,我们推测,鉴于缺乏使用现实物理模型进行的研究,并且由于实验地震目录中记录的事件可能存在偏差,在这两个方面都需要进行重要改进,以确保提供具有统计学意义的答案。