Roehrkasse Alexander F, Wildeman Christopher
Department of Sociology and Criminology, Butler University, 4600 Sunset Ave, Indianapolis, IN 46208, USA.
Department of Sociology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.
Sci Adv. 2022 Dec 2;8(48):eabo3395. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abo3395.
How likely are U.S. males and females of different ethnoracial groups to be imprisoned over the course of their lives, and how have these risks changed in recent decades? Using survey and administrative data, we update 20th-century estimates of the cumulative risk of imprisonment for the 21st century. In 2016, non-Hispanic Black males' lifetime risk of imprisonment remained very high-more than 16%-but decreased substantially relative to extreme levels of risk in the 1990s and early 2000s. The lifetime risk of imprisonment among people identifying as American Indian or Alaska Native was nearly 50% for males and more than 14% for females. Although national prison admission rates are declining, imprisonment remains a pervasive and highly unequal life-course experience.
美国不同种族群体的男性和女性在其一生中被监禁的可能性有多大,以及这些风险在最近几十年里发生了怎样的变化?我们利用调查和行政数据,更新了20世纪对21世纪监禁累积风险的估计。2016年,非西班牙裔黑人男性的终身监禁风险仍然很高——超过16%——但与20世纪90年代和21世纪初的极端风险水平相比大幅下降。自我认同为美洲印第安人或阿拉斯加原住民的男性终身监禁风险接近50%,女性则超过14%。尽管全国监狱入狱率在下降,但监禁仍然是一种普遍且极不平等的人生经历。