Department of Sociology and Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
ROCKWOOL Foundation Research Unit, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Demography. 2024 Feb 1;61(1):141-164. doi: 10.1215/00703370-11153107.
Intergenerational transmission processes have long been of interest to demographers, but prior research on the intergenerational transmission of criminal justice contact is relatively sparse and limited by its lack of attention to the correlated "family troubles" and familial incarceration that predate criminal justice contact. In this article, we provide a test of the intergenerational transmission of criminal justice contact after adjusting extensively for these factors that predate such contact by linking longitudinal data from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods with official arrest histories from 1995 to 2020. The results provide support for three conclusions. First, parental criminal justice contact is associated with a shorter time to first arrest and a larger number of arrests even after rigorously accounting for selection. Second, robustness checks demonstrate that neither the magnitude nor the significance of the findings is sensitive to model choices. Third, associations are strongest among White individuals and inconsistently significant for African American and Hispanic individuals. Despite large recent crime declines, the results indicate that parental criminal justice contact elevates the criminal justice contact of the adult children of the prison boom, independent of the often-overlooked troubles that predate criminal justice contact, and that these associations are strongest among the White population.
代际传递过程一直是人口统计学家感兴趣的话题,但先前关于刑事司法接触代际传递的研究相对较少,且受到关注的限制,因为这些研究缺乏对刑事司法接触之前的相关“家庭问题”和家庭监禁的关注。在本文中,我们通过将芝加哥社区人类发展项目的纵向数据与 1995 年至 2020 年的官方逮捕记录联系起来,在广泛调整这些先于刑事司法接触的因素后,对刑事司法接触的代际传递进行了测试。研究结果支持三个结论。首先,父母的刑事司法接触与首次被捕的时间间隔缩短和被捕次数增加有关,即使在严格考虑到选择因素后也是如此。其次,稳健性检验表明,发现结果的大小和显著性都不受模型选择的影响。第三,关联性在白人个体中最强,而在非裔美国人和西班牙裔个体中则不一致显著。尽管最近犯罪率大幅下降,但研究结果表明,父母的刑事司法接触会增加监狱繁荣时期成年子女的刑事司法接触,这独立于经常被忽视的刑事司法接触之前的问题,而且这种关联在白人群体中最强。