School of Geographical Sciences and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, 510006, People's Republic of China.
Vanasiri Evolutionary Ecology Lab, School of Biology, IISER Thiruvananthapuram, Maruthamala, Vithura, Kerala, 695551, India.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Mar;30(12):32383-32405. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-24399-2. Epub 2022 Dec 3.
The human development index (HDI) was an important step toward a more human-oriented assessment of socioeconomic prosperity. Nevertheless, at the onset of the anthropocene, the environmental pillar of sustainable development is indispensable. This work aims to understand this conundrum of human development and its environmental cost or pressure through the use of the planetary pressures-adjusted human development index (PHDI) as well as introduce another modified version, planetary pressures, and inequality-adjusted human development index (PIHDI). PHDI incorporates two biophysical consumption-based indicators (CO emissions and material footprint, MF) as a proxy of environmental pressures into traditionally socioeconomic development-focused HDI. This work spans 164 nations and 27 years (1990-2016). Various statistical techniques such as Pearson's correlation, hierarchical clustering (HCA), generalised additive modelling (GAM), data envelopment analysis (DEA), linear regression, and ARIMA forecasting have been used to explore interrelationships, non-linearity, efficiency analysis, and future projections (up to 2030) and delve into two scenarios: high human development and for human development permitted only within the two planetary boundaries (PBs) (viz. climate change and material footprint) and their consequences when exceeded. Though most of the countries with high PHDI and PIHDI scores are from the global north and have a high income, it is also possible to attain human development (i.e. increase PHDI and PIHDI scores) without overexploiting biophysical resources. From 2016, human development scores could increase by 55-63% (climate change) or 30-46% (material consumption) within a safe operating space in 2030. Without the required focus on the environment, aiming for a superior score in PHDI and PIHDI could result in 43-58% (CO emissions) or 57-58% (material footprint) of countries that would exceed PB. Based on the outcome of this work, it can be recommended that governments and policymakers that it is well within the limits of feasibility as well as necessary to make human socioeconomic development aspire to sustainability to address the needs of humanity, while respecting the well-being of the surrounding biosphere.
人类发展指数（HDI）是对社会经济繁荣进行更以人为本评估的重要一步。然而，在人类世开始之际，可持续发展的环境支柱不可或缺。这项工作旨在通过使用行星压力调整后的人类发展指数（PHDI）以及引入另一个经过修改的版本——行星压力和不平等调整后的人类发展指数（PIHDI），来理解人类发展的这一难题及其环境代价或压力。PHDI 将两个基于生物物理消费的指标（CO 排放和物质足迹，MF）纳入传统上以社会经济发展为重点的人类发展指数（HDI）中，作为环境压力的代理。这项工作涵盖了 164 个国家和 27 年（1990-2016 年）的数据。各种统计技术，如 Pearson 相关系数、层次聚类（HCA）、广义加性模型（GAM）、数据包络分析（DEA）、线性回归和 ARIMA 预测，被用于探索相互关系、非线性、效率分析和未来预测（至 2030 年），并深入研究了两种情景：高人类发展和仅在两个行星边界（气候变化和物质足迹）内允许的人类发展，以及超出这些边界的后果。尽管拥有高 PHDI 和 PIHDI 分数的大多数国家都来自全球北方，且收入较高，但在不过度开采生物物理资源的情况下，也有可能实现人类发展（即提高 PHDI 和 PIHDI 分数）。从 2016 年起，在 2030 年的安全运行空间内，人类发展得分可能会增加 55-63%（气候变化）或 30-46%（物质消耗）。如果没有对环境的必要关注，在 PHDI 和 PIHDI 中获得更高的分数可能会导致 43-58%（CO 排放）或 57-58%（物质足迹）的国家超过 PB。基于这项工作的结果，可以建议各国政府和政策制定者，在可行性范围内，有必要使人类社会经济发展向可持续性发展，以满足人类的需求，同时尊重周围生物圈的福祉。
