Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, China.
Guangxi Key Laboratory of AIDS Prevention and Treatment, Guangxi Universities Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Highly Prevalent Disease, Nanning 530021, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Nov 22;19(23):15429. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192315429.
(1) Background: although mumps vaccines have been introduced in most countries around the world in recent years, mumps outbreaks have occurred in countries with high vaccination rates. At present, China remains the focus of the global fight against mumps. This study aims to observe the epidemic characteristics and spatial clustering patterns of mumps and to investigate the potential factors affecting the disease incidence, which could provide novel ideas and avenues for future research as well as the prevention and control of mumps. (2) Methods: we used ArcGIS software to visualize the spatial distribution and variation of mumps. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was applied to detect the spatial dependence and clustering patterns of the incidence. We applied the Spatial Durbin Panel Model (SDPM) to explore the spatial associations of ecological environmental factors with mumps. (3) Results: overall, the incidence rate showed a significant upward trend from 2014 to 2018, with the highest number of cases in the 10-15-year age group and from May to June. Geographically, the high incidence clusters were concentrated in southern regions, including Hunan, Hubei, Chongqing, Guizhou, Guangdong, and Guangxi. This study also found that mumps has a positive spatial spillover effect in the study area. The average temperature and GDP of the local and adjacent areas have a significant impact on mumps. The increase in PM2.5 contributes to the rise in the incidence of mumps in this region. (4) Conclusions: these results can offer some novel ideas for policymakers and researchers. Local meteorological conditions and economic levels can extend to surrounding areas to affect the occurrence of mumps, so regional cooperation becomes particularly important. We recommend investment of public health funds in areas with a high incidence of mumps and developing economies to reduce and control the incidence of mumps.
（1）背景：尽管近年来世界上大多数国家都引入了腮腺炎疫苗，但在疫苗接种率较高的国家仍发生了腮腺炎暴发。目前，中国仍是全球防治腮腺炎的重点。本研究旨在观察腮腺炎的流行特征和空间聚集模式，并探讨影响疾病发病率的潜在因素，为未来的研究以及腮腺炎的预防和控制提供新的思路和途径。（2）方法：我们使用 ArcGIS 软件可视化腮腺炎的空间分布和变化。应用空间自相关分析检测发病率的空间依赖性和聚集模式。我们应用空间 Durbin 面板模型（SDPM）探索生态环境因素与腮腺炎的空间关联。（3）结果：总体而言，2014 年至 2018 年发病率呈明显上升趋势，发病人群主要集中在 10-15 岁年龄组，发病高峰在 5 月至 6 月。地理上，高发集群集中在南方地区，包括湖南、湖北、重庆、贵州、广东和广西。本研究还发现，腮腺炎在研究区域具有正的空间溢出效应。本地和相邻地区的平均气温和 GDP 对腮腺炎有显著影响。当地及周边地区 PM2.5 的增加也会导致该地区腮腺炎发病率上升。（4）结论：这些结果可为决策者和研究人员提供一些新的思路。当地的气象条件和经济水平可以延伸到周边地区，影响腮腺炎的发生，因此区域合作尤为重要。我们建议在腮腺炎高发地区和发展中地区投入公共卫生资金，以减少和控制腮腺炎的发病率。
