Xie Qiwei, Cheng Lu, Liu Ranran, Zheng Xiaolong, Li Jingyu
School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China.
Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100000, China.
Financ Res Lett. 2023 Mar;52:103545. doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103545. Epub 2022 Nov 29.
COVID-19 has influenced financial markets drastically; however, this influence has received little attention, particularly in China. This study investigates risk spillovers across China's financial and shipping markets through dynamic spillover measures based on time-varying parameter vector autoregression and generalized forecast error variance decompositions. Stock, fund, and futures markets are identified as major risk senders, whereas other markets are identified as major risk receivers. Surprisingly, bonds, gold, and shipping are safe havens that facilitate portfolio optimization. Furthermore, using wavelet coherence analysis, we find that the coherence between dynamic total spillover and COVID-19 varies across time and frequency domains.
新冠疫情对金融市场产生了巨大影响;然而,这种影响很少受到关注,在中国尤其如此。本研究通过基于时变参数向量自回归和广义预测误差方差分解的动态溢出测度,考察了中国金融市场与航运市场之间的风险溢出。股票、基金和期货市场被确定为主要风险发送方,而其他市场则被确定为主要风险接收方。令人惊讶的是,债券、黄金和航运是有助于投资组合优化的避险资产。此外,通过小波相干分析,我们发现动态总溢出与新冠疫情之间的相干性在时域和频域中随时间变化。