Svenson Ola
Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
Decision Research, Eugene, OR USA.
Discov Soc Sci Health. 2022;2(1):24. doi: 10.1007/s44155-022-00027-9. Epub 2022 Dec 5.
During the COVID-19 pandemic people were asked to keep interpersonal distance, wash their hands and avoid gatherings of people. But, do people understand how much a change of the distance to a virus infected person means for the exposure to that person's virus? To answer this question, we studied how people perceive virus exposure from an infected person at different distances and lengths of a conversation.
An online questionnaire was distributed to 101 participants drawn from the general US population. Participants judged perceived virus exposure at different interpersonal distances to an infected person in a face to face conversation of different lengths of time. A model based on empirical and theoretical studies of dispersion of particles in the air was used to estimate a person's objective virus exposure during different times and distances from a virus source. The model and empirical data show that exposure changes with the square of the distance and linearly with time.
A majority (78%) of the participants underestimated the effects on virus exposure following a change of interpersonal distance. The dominating bias was assuming that exposure varies linearly with distance. To illustrate, an approach to a virus source from 6 to 2 feet was judged to give a 3 times higher exposure but, objectively it is 9 times. By way of contrast, perceptions of exposure as a function of the duration of a conversation were unbiased. The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus is likely to be followed by other pandemics also caused by airborne Corona or other viruses. Therefore, the results are important for administrators when designing risk communications to the general public and workers in the health care sector about social distancing and infection risks.
People quite drastically underestimate the increase in virus exposure following an approach to a virus infected person. They also overestimate exposure after a move away from an infected person. For public health reasons, the correct function connecting distance with virus exposure should be communicated to the general public to avoid deliberate violations of recommended interpersonal distances.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s44155-022-00027-9.
在新冠疫情期间,人们被要求保持人际距离、勤洗手并避免人群聚集。但是,人们是否明白与病毒感染者距离的变化对接触该人所携带病毒的影响程度呢?为了回答这个问题,我们研究了人们在不同距离和对话时长下如何感知来自感染者的病毒暴露情况。
向从美国普通人群中抽取的101名参与者发放了一份在线问卷。参与者在不同时长的面对面交谈中,判断在与感染者保持不同人际距离时所感知到的病毒暴露情况。基于对空气中颗粒扩散的实证和理论研究的模型,用于估计一个人在不同时间和与病毒源不同距离时的客观病毒暴露情况。该模型和实证数据表明,暴露程度随距离的平方变化,随时间呈线性变化。
大多数(78%)参与者低估了人际距离变化对病毒暴露的影响。主要偏差在于认为暴露程度随距离呈线性变化。举例来说,从距离病毒源6英尺靠近到2英尺被认为会使暴露程度增加3倍,但客观上是9倍。相比之下,对暴露程度随对话时长变化的感知没有偏差。由严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV2)病毒引发的新冠疫情之后,可能还会出现由空气传播的冠状病毒或其他病毒引发的其他疫情。因此,这些结果对于管理人员在设计向公众和医疗保健部门工作人员传达社交距离和感染风险的风险沟通时非常重要。
人们严重低估了靠近病毒感染者后病毒暴露的增加情况。他们也高估了远离感染者后的暴露情况。出于公共卫生原因,应向公众传达距离与病毒暴露之间的正确函数关系,以避免故意违反建议的人际距离。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s44155-022-00027-9获取的补充材料。