Medical Faculty, University of Hasan Prishtina, Rr. George Bush Nr. 31, 10000 Pristina, Kosovo.
National Institute of Public Health, St. Mother Teresa pn, Rrethi i Spitalit, 10000 Pristina, Kosovo.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Dec 9;19(24):16591. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192416591.
This study aimed to investigate the effects of particulate air pollution (PM2.5) on cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in Pristina, Kosovo, in a time-series analysis using daily primary healthcare visits to primary care institutions from 2019 to 2022. For the observation period, 6440 cardiovascular and 15,141 respiratory visits were reported, whereas the daily mean concentrations of PM2.5 ranged between 2.41 and 120.3 µg/m. Single-lag models indicated a bi-phasic lag structure with increasing effect estimates some days after the air pollution event. In the distributed lag model with seven lags, the effect estimates for the cardiovascular cases indicated the adverse effect of air pollution. The cumulative effect estimate (summed over lag 0 to 6) for an increase of 10 µg/m of PM2.5 was a relative risk of 1.010 (95% confidence interval: 1.001-1.019). For respiratory cases, a different lag model (lag 4 through 10) was additionally examined. In this model, significant increases in visits were observed on lags 7 and 8. Overall, no relevant increase in visits occurred during the seven days considered. Visits to general practitioners will often not occur immediately at disease onset because patients will wait, hoping that their health status improves spontaneously. Therefore, we expected some latency in the effects.
本研究旨在通过对 2019 年至 2022 年期间初级保健机构每日初级保健就诊的时间序列分析,研究科索沃普里什蒂纳的颗粒物空气污染 (PM2.5) 对心血管和呼吸道疾病的影响。在观察期内,报告了 6440 例心血管病例和 15141 例呼吸道病例,而 PM2.5 的日平均浓度范围在 2.41 至 120.3 µg/m 之间。单滞后模型表明存在双相滞后结构,在空气污染事件发生几天后,影响估计值呈上升趋势。在具有七个滞后的分布式滞后模型中,心血管病例的影响估计值表明空气污染存在不良影响。PM2.5 增加 10 µg/m 的累积效应估计值(滞后 0 到 6 的总和)为相对风险 1.010(95%置信区间:1.001-1.019)。对于呼吸道病例,还额外检查了另一个滞后模型(滞后 4 至 10)。在该模型中,在第 7 天和第 8 天观察到就诊人数显著增加。总体而言,在考虑的七天内没有出现相关的就诊人数增加。由于患者会等待,希望他们的健康状况会自然改善,因此,他们通常不会在疾病发作时立即去看全科医生。因此,我们预计会有一些潜伏期。