Department of Transportation, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, No. 1 Zhanlanguan Rd., Beijing 100044, China.
China Academy of Urban Planning Design, No. 9 Sanlihe Rd., Beijing 100044, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Dec 12;19(24):16664. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192416664.
Human movements in complex traffic environments have been successfully simulated by various models. It is crucial to improve crowd safety and urban resilience. However, few studies focus on reproducing human behavior and predicting escape reaction time in the initial judgement stage in complex traffic environments. In this paper, a pedestrian pre-evacuation decision-making model considering pedestrian heterogeneity is proposed for complex environments. Firstly, the model takes different obvious factors into account, including cognition, information, experience, habits, stress, and decision-making ability. Then, according to the preference of the escapees, the personnel decision-making in each stage is divided into two types: stay and escape. Finally, multiple influencing factors are selected to construct the regression equation for prediction of the escape opportunity. The results show that: (1) Choices of escape opportunity are divided into several stages, which are affected by the pedestrian individual risk tolerance, risk categories strength, distance from danger, and reaction of the neighborhood crowd. (2) There are many important factors indicating the pedestrian individual risk tolerance, in which Gen, Group, Time and Mode are a positive correlation, while Age and Zone are a negative correlation. (3) The analysis of the natural response rate of different evacuation strategies shows that 19.81% of people evacuate immediately. The research in this paper can better protect public safety and promote the normal activities of the population.
在复杂的交通环境中，各种模型已经成功地模拟了人类的运动。这对于提高人群安全和城市弹性至关重要。然而，很少有研究关注在复杂交通环境中重现人类行为和预测初始判断阶段的逃生反应时间。本文提出了一种考虑行人异质性的复杂环境下行人预疏散决策模型。首先，该模型考虑了不同的明显因素，包括认知、信息、经验、习惯、压力和决策能力。然后，根据逃生者的偏好，将人员在每个阶段的决策分为停留和逃生两种类型。最后，选择多个影响因素来构建逃生机会的预测回归方程。结果表明：（1）逃生机会的选择分为几个阶段，受到行人个体风险承受能力、风险类别强度、与危险的距离和邻居人群的反应的影响。（2）有许多重要因素表明行人个体风险承受能力，其中 Gen、Group、Time 和 Mode 呈正相关，而 Age 和 Zone 呈负相关。（3）不同疏散策略的自然响应率分析表明，有 19.81%的人立即疏散。本文的研究可以更好地保护公共安全，促进人口的正常活动。
