China Emergency Management Research Center, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China.
Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center of Safety Early Warning and Emergency Response Technology, Wuhan 430070, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Dec 15;19(24):16884. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192416884.
The number of express boxes worldwide exceeded 170 billion in 2021, and, from several regions in China, tested positive. Therefore, it is important to study the transmission of viruses through express boxes. In this paper, we establish a model of express box virus transmission based on comprehensive consideration of environmental factors, such as temperature, disinfection, humidity, virus release intensity, and volume of vehicle, to study the transmission of express box virus, and explore the spatial and geographic spread variation of express box viruses in China. Several important findings emerged from the study, including: (1) Disinfection can prolong the spread of viruses in the express box for ≥21 h; (2) For every 1 °C rise in temperature, the infected time can be prolonged by ≥1.2 h, and for every 10% rise in relative humidity, the virus transmission time can be prolonged by ≥1.32 h; (3) In an environment suitable for virus transmission, when loaded with 1000, 2000, 4000 express boxes, areas where the express delivery time exceeds 22.56, 18, 14.64 h will face the risk of all the boxes in the carriage being infected. These findings could help public health departments prevent the risk of virus transmission from express boxes.
2021 年全球快递盒数量超过 1700 亿个，并且在中国的几个地区检测呈阳性。因此，研究病毒通过快递盒传播的途径很重要。在本文中，我们综合考虑了环境因素，如温度、消毒、湿度、病毒释放强度、车辆体积等，建立了一个快递盒病毒传播模型，以研究快递盒病毒的传播，并探索中国快递盒病毒的空间和地理传播变化。该研究得出了几个重要发现，包括：（1）消毒可以将快递盒中病毒的传播时间延长≥21 小时；（2）温度每升高 1°C，感染时间可延长≥1.2 小时，相对湿度每升高 10%，病毒传播时间可延长≥1.32 小时；（3）在适合病毒传播的环境中，当装载 1000、2000、4000 个快递盒时，快递时间超过 22.56、18、14.64 小时的地区，将面临车箱内所有快递盒被感染的风险。这些发现有助于公共卫生部门预防病毒通过快递盒传播的风险。
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