Zhang Chen, Liao Hua, Strobl Eric, Li Hui, Li Ru, Jensen Steen Solvang, Zhang Ying
School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, South Zhongguancun Street 5, Haidian District, Beijing, 100081, China.
Environmental and Health Research Group, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, South Zhongguancun Street 5, Haidian District, Beijing, 100081, China.
J Clean Prod. 2021 Apr 10;292:125987. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.125987. Epub 2021 Jan 16.
It is believed that weather conditions such as temperature and humidity have effects on COVID-19 transmission. However, these effects are not clear due to the limited observations and difficulties in separating impact of social distancing. COVID-19 data and social-economic features of 1236 regions in the world (1112 regions at the provincial level and 124 countries with the small land area) were collected. Large-scale satellite data was combined with these data with a regression analysis model to explore the effects of temperature and relative humidity on COVID-19 spreading, as well as the possible transmission risk by seasonal cycles. The result shows that temperature and relative humidity are negatively correlated with COVID-19 transmission throughout the world. Government intervention (e.g. lockdown policies) and lower population movement contributed to decrease the new daily case ratio. Weather conditions are not the decisive factor in COVID-19 transmission, in that government intervention as well as public awareness, could contribute to the mitigation of the spreading of the virus. So, it deserves a dynamic government policy to mitigate COVID-19 transmission in winter.
人们认为,温度和湿度等天气条件会对新冠病毒传播产生影响。然而,由于观测数据有限以及难以区分社交距离的影响,这些影响尚不清楚。收集了世界上1236个地区(1112个省级地区和124个面积较小的国家)的新冠疫情数据和社会经济特征。将大规模卫星数据与这些数据相结合,利用回归分析模型来探究温度和相对湿度对新冠病毒传播的影响,以及季节性周期可能带来的传播风险。结果表明,全球范围内温度和相对湿度与新冠病毒传播呈负相关。政府干预(如封锁政策)和较低的人口流动有助于降低每日新增病例率。天气条件并非新冠病毒传播的决定性因素,因为政府干预以及公众意识有助于减轻病毒传播。因此,制定动态的政府政策以减轻冬季新冠病毒传播是值得的。