Ziyaei Sadaf, Panahi Mostafa, Manzour Davoud, Karbasi Abdolreza, Ghaffarzadeh Hamidreza
Department of Environmental Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
Department of Energy Engineering and Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
Environ Monit Assess. 2022 Dec 23;195(1):225. doi: 10.1007/s10661-022-10794-2.
Due to using fossil energy resources, power generation is the most important factor of pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Considering the importance of the issue, seven scenarios for decreasing greenhouse gas emissions in the power industry, including the development of renewable energies, energy efficiency in thermal power plants, and decreasing the emission of carbon according to international agreements, and the creation of sustainable power generation systems, were defined and evaluated technically, economically, and environmentally. In the current study, an optimization model for long-term power generation planning was used for two concepts of supply and demand. The results of comparing the scenarios showed that the development of renewable power plants was not solely a suitable and optimal way for decreasing greenhouse gas and carbon emissions. The strategies for improving efficiency in thermal power plants, including the development of combined cycle power plants and the repowering of steam power plants, are more suitable options for implementation, considering the constraints of the problem. Therefore, eliminating the existing circumstances and employing the combined scenario while considering the objectives of the study should be the only strategy for decarbonization in this industry, with the minimum cost and minimum rate of emission. By decreasing the share of thermal power plants, decreasing fuel demand, and increasing the share of renewable power plants to 20%, the combined scenario would decrease pollution and greenhouse gas emissions by up to 77.6 million tons of carbon dioxide, as well as the environmental costs up to 1894.5 million dollars, compared to the basic scenario up to 2030. Moreover, paying attention to the management strategies of a demand concept seems necessary from an economic viewpoint, in addition to other presented strategies.
由于使用化石能源，发电是污染和温室气体排放的最重要因素。考虑到该问题的重要性，定义并从技术、经济和环境方面评估了电力行业减少温室气体排放的七种情景，包括可再生能源的发展、火力发电厂的能源效率、根据国际协议减少碳排放以及创建可持续发电系统。在当前研究中，针对供需两个概念使用了长期发电规划的优化模型。情景比较结果表明，可再生发电厂的发展并非减少温室气体和碳排放的唯一合适且最优方式。考虑到问题的限制条件，提高火力发电厂效率的策略，包括联合循环发电厂的发展和蒸汽发电厂的重新发电，是更适合实施的选择。因此，消除现有情况并在考虑研究目标的同时采用综合情景应该是该行业脱碳的唯一策略，以实现最低成本和最低排放率。到2030年，与基础情景相比，通过降低火力发电厂的份额、减少燃料需求并将可再生发电厂的份额提高到20%，综合情景将减少高达7760万吨二氧化碳的污染和温室气体排放，以及高达18.945亿美元的环境成本。此外，从经济角度来看，除了其他提出的策略外，关注需求概念的管理策略似乎也是必要的。
