Marsden Greg, Docherty Iain
Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK.
Institute for Advanced Studies, University of Stirling, Stirling, FK9 4LA, UK.
Transp Policy (Oxf). 2021 Sep;110:86-97. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.05.015. Epub 2021 Jun 1.
There has been widespread interest in the potential for the significant behavioural and policy adaptations rendered necessary by Coronavirus to act as a catalyst for radical longer term policy change in transport. However, this body of work to date has been limited in its consideration of such policy change might be brought about. Translating the lessons from the Coronavirus response to other ongoing strategic challenges such as decarbonisation requires analysis of what the pandemic has revealed about processes of policy formulation and how institutions responsible for policy implementation actually work. This paper explores the extent to which rapid policy change has actually been possible in the transport sector in England and Scotland during the pandemic, and key examples of how such change has been both achieved and blocked. Two rounds of interviews with senior stakeholders from across the transport sector were undertaken in June and November 2020 to inform the analysis. We find that the pandemic has accelerated some policy commitments that were already planned, but at a time of huge stress on the whole of government and its partner delivery organisations, the potential to deliver radical policy adaptation was limited. However, Coronavirus is recognised as being a potentially path-changing disruption to existing trajectories in terms of the adaptations to business practices, industry structures, ways of working and the public finances. Paradoxically, whilst recognising these uncertainties, decision-makers are yet to deviate from pre-pandemic planning assumptions and policy plans and this risks missing the opportunities to steer how those changes unfold.
冠状病毒疫情使得人们必须进行重大的行为和政策调整，这引发了广泛关注，人们认为这些调整可能成为推动交通领域长期激进政策变革的催化剂。然而，迄今为止，这方面的工作在考虑这种政策变革如何实现方面存在局限性。将应对冠状病毒疫情的经验教训应用于其他持续存在的战略挑战，如脱碳，需要分析疫情揭示了哪些政策制定过程，以及负责政策实施的机构实际是如何运作的。本文探讨了在疫情期间，英格兰和苏格兰的交通部门实际实现快速政策变革的程度，以及这种变革是如何实现和受阻的关键实例。2020年6月和11月，对交通部门的高级利益相关者进行了两轮访谈，以提供分析依据。我们发现，疫情加速了一些原本就已计划好的政策承诺，但在整个政府及其合作伙伴实施机构面临巨大压力之际，实现激进政策调整的可能性有限。然而，冠状病毒被认为可能会改变现有轨迹，在商业惯例、行业结构、工作方式和公共财政等方面带来变革。矛盾的是，尽管认识到这些不确定性，但决策者尚未偏离疫情前的规划假设和政策计划，这有可能错失引导这些变革如何展开的机会。
