Ferreira Sara, Amorim Marco, Lobo António, Kern Mira, Fanderl Nora, Couto António
Faculty of Engineering of the University of Porto, Research Centre for Territory, Transports and Environment, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, s/n, 4200-465, Portugal.
Fraunhofer IAO, Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering IAO, Nobelstraße 12, 70569, Stuttgart, Germany.
Transp Policy (Oxf). 2022 Sep;126:55-64. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2022.07.011. Epub 2022 Jul 16.
The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the way how the people live, work and move, and naturally the transport sector became one of the most affected by this global crisis. Beyond the sudden fall of mobility at the beginning of the pandemic, it is important to understand how people are regaining trust in travelling, even if it is still unpredictable if and when the transport sector will recover to the pre-pandemic levels. This study focuses on the analysis of commuting trips and the changes of travel mode preferences over the first eight months of the pandemic in Germany. A survey with an orthogonal design based on sets of cards containing different transport mode alternatives and attributes was conducted in three waves (April, June, and October 2020). The individual characteristics and the preferences of around 4800 commuters were collected through the survey and modelled using a conditional logit approach. The results show that commuters have regained some trust on public transport since the April-May 2020 lockdown, but this has occurred at a slow pace. The reduction of public transport ticket fares can be the most effective strategy to recover some of the users lost to other modes.
新冠疫情改变了人们的生活、工作和出行方式，交通运输部门自然成为受这场全球危机影响最严重的领域之一。除了疫情初期出行量的突然下降，了解人们如何重新建立对出行的信任也很重要，即便交通运输部门能否以及何时恢复到疫情前的水平仍不可预测。本研究聚焦于德国疫情头八个月通勤出行情况及出行方式偏好的变化。基于包含不同交通方式选择和属性的卡片组进行了一项具有正交设计的调查，分三轮进行（2020年4月、6月和10月）。通过该调查收集了约4800名通勤者的个人特征和偏好，并采用条件logit方法进行建模。结果显示，自2020年4月至5月封锁以来，通勤者对公共交通的信任有所恢复，但恢复速度较慢。降低公共交通票价可能是挽回转向其他出行方式的部分用户的最有效策略。
