Department of Geography, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Nat Commun. 2023 Jan 6;14(1):101. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-35570-1.
Forest mortality caused by convective storms (windthrow) is a major disturbance in the Amazon. However, the linkage between windthrows at the surface and convective storms in the atmosphere remains unclear. In addition, the current Earth system models (ESMs) lack mechanistic links between convective wind events and tree mortality. Here we find an empirical relationship that maps convective available potential energy, which is well simulated by ESMs, to the spatial pattern of large windthrow events. This relationship builds connections between strong convective storms and forest dynamics in the Amazon. Based on the relationship, our model projects a 51 ± 20% increase in the area favorable to extreme storms, and a 43 ± 17% increase in windthrow density within the Amazon by the end of this century under the high-emission scenario (SSP 585). These results indicate significant changes in tropical forest composition and carbon cycle dynamics under climate change.
对流风暴（风倒）引起的森林死亡是亚马逊地区的主要干扰源。然而，地表风倒和大气对流风暴之间的联系仍不清楚。此外，目前的地球系统模型（ESMs）缺乏对流风事件与树木死亡之间的机械联系。在这里，我们找到了一个经验关系，将对流可用势能（ESMs 很好地模拟了这一关系）映射到大型风倒事件的空间模式。这种关系建立了强对流风暴与亚马逊地区森林动态之间的联系。基于这种关系，我们的模型预测，在高排放情景（SSP585）下，本世纪末亚马逊地区有利于极端风暴的区域将增加 51±20%，风倒密度将增加 43±17%。这些结果表明，在气候变化下，热带森林组成和碳循环动态将发生重大变化。
