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在大流行早期阶段使用有限数据预测行动能力。

Predicting mobility using limited data during early stages of a pandemic.

作者信息

Lash Michael T, Sajeesh S, Araz Ozgur M

机构信息

School of Business, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, United States.

College of Business, University of Nebraska - Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68588, United States.

出版信息

J Bus Res. 2023 Mar;157:113413. doi: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2022.113413. Epub 2023 Jan 6.

DOI:10.1016/j.jbusres.2022.113413
PMID:36628355
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9815965/
Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed consumer behavior substantially. In this study, we explore the drivers of consumer mobility in several metropolitan areas in the United States under the perceived risks of COVID-19. We capture multiple dimensions of perceived risk using local and national cases and death counts of COVID-19, along with real-time Google Trends data for personal protective equipment (PPE). While Google Trends data are popular inputs in many studies, the risk of multicollinearity escalates with the addition of more relevant terms. Therefore, multicollinearity-alleviating methods are needed to appropriately leverage information provided by Google Trends data. We develop and utilize a novel optimization scheme to induce linear models containing strictly significant covariates and minimal multicollinearity. We find that there are a variety of unique factors that drive mobility in different geographic locations, as well as several factors that are common to all locations.

摘要

新冠疫情极大地改变了消费者行为。在本研究中,我们探讨了在美国几个大都市地区,在新冠疫情可感知风险下消费者流动性的驱动因素。我们利用新冠疫情的本地和全国病例及死亡人数,以及个人防护装备(PPE)的实时谷歌趋势数据,来捕捉可感知风险的多个维度。虽然谷歌趋势数据在许多研究中是常用的输入数据,但随着添加更多相关术语,多重共线性风险会加剧。因此,需要采用减轻多重共线性的方法来恰当地利用谷歌趋势数据提供的信息。我们开发并运用了一种新颖的优化方案,以构建包含严格显著协变量且多重共线性最小的线性模型。我们发现,有多种独特因素推动着不同地理位置的流动性,也有一些因素是所有地点共有的。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc14/9815965/6c3dfe30dfbc/gr7_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc14/9815965/f9d6302b6f33/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc14/9815965/875ae08adcf7/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc14/9815965/0abb0eb90362/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc14/9815965/b7c006f78f63/gr4_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc14/9815965/e471552f01c7/gr5_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc14/9815965/06589f1bab26/gr6_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc14/9815965/6c3dfe30dfbc/gr7_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc14/9815965/f9d6302b6f33/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc14/9815965/875ae08adcf7/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc14/9815965/0abb0eb90362/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc14/9815965/b7c006f78f63/gr4_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc14/9815965/e471552f01c7/gr5_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc14/9815965/06589f1bab26/gr6_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc14/9815965/6c3dfe30dfbc/gr7_lrg.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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Transp Policy (Oxf). 2021 Mar;103:197-210. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.01.006. Epub 2021 Feb 9.
2
21 Million Opportunities: a 19 Facility Investigation of Factors Affecting Hand-Hygiene Compliance via Linear Predictive Models.2100万个机会:通过线性预测模型对影响手部卫生依从性因素的19个机构调查
J Healthc Inform Res. 2019 Apr 29;3(4):393-413. doi: 10.1007/s41666-019-00048-1. eCollection 2019 Dec.
3
A bridge between sentiment indicators: What does Google Trends tell us about COVID-19 pandemic and employment expectations in the EU new member states?
情绪指标之间的桥梁:谷歌趋势能告诉我们关于欧盟新成员国的新冠疫情和就业预期的哪些信息?
Technol Forecast Soc Change. 2021 Dec;173:121170. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121170. Epub 2021 Aug 31.
4
Monitoring the COVID-19 epidemic with nationwide telecommunication data.利用全国电信数据监测新冠疫情。
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Jun 29;118(26). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2100664118.
5
The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Consumers' Intention to Use Shared-Mobility Services in German Cities.新冠疫情对德国城市消费者使用共享出行服务意愿的影响。
Front Psychol. 2021 Mar 1;12:646593. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2021.646593. eCollection 2021.
6
Tracking COVID-19 using taste and smell loss Google searches is not a reliable strategy.利用味觉和嗅觉丧失的谷歌搜索来追踪 COVID-19 并不是一种可靠的策略。
Sci Rep. 2020 Nov 25;10(1):20527. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-77316-3.
7
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J Econom. 2021 Jan;220(1):23-62. doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.09.003. Epub 2020 Oct 17.
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J Econom. 2021 Jan;220(1):86-105. doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.045. Epub 2020 Aug 25.
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