Feng Yitao, Wu Huaan, Jin Yuhua, Wang Lianqiu, Zeng Bo
Research Center for Economy of Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing, 400067, China.
Chongqing Finance and Economics College, Chongqing, 401320, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Mar;30(14):41419-41434. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-25186-3. Epub 2023 Jan 12.
This paper explores the effect mechanism of population aging on carbon dioxide emissions using provincial panel data in China from 2005 to 2019 and examines how aging affects carbon dioxide emissions through stepwise regression test and Sobel test respectively by constructing a multiple mediating effect model. The following conclusions have been drawn: (1) the results of the baseline regression show that population aging has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emissions. (2) The results of intermediary effect test show that the intermediary effect of population aging through technological progress, industrial structure, consumption level, and consumption structure is significant. (3) The results of heterogeneity test show that the mediating effect of technological progress is not significant in the eastern region, central region, and western region, and the mediating effect of industrial structure and consumption structure is significant in the eastern region and central region, and the mediating effect of consumption level is significant in the eastern region and western region. (4) The results of the robustness test also verify the mediating effect conclusion once again and prove the robustness of the results. Overall, as an aging society country, China should take the impact of aging into consideration more in the process of achieving emission peak and carbon neutrality.
本文利用2005—2019年中国省级面板数据探究人口老龄化对二氧化碳排放的影响机制，并通过构建多重中介效应模型，分别运用逐步回归检验和Sobel检验考察老龄化如何影响二氧化碳排放。研究得出以下结论：（1）基准回归结果表明，人口老龄化对碳排放具有显著抑制作用。（2）中介效应检验结果显示，人口老龄化通过技术进步、产业结构、消费水平和消费结构产生的中介效应显著。（3）异质性检验结果表明，技术进步的中介效应在东部、中部和西部地区均不显著，产业结构和消费结构的中介效应在东部和中部地区显著，消费水平的中介效应在东部和西部地区显著。（4）稳健性检验结果再次验证了中介效应结论，证明了结果的稳健性。总体而言，作为老龄化社会国家，中国在实现碳排放达峰和碳中和的过程中应更多地考虑老龄化的影响。
