School of Environment & Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Nov;30(53):114001-114016. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-30400-3. Epub 2023 Oct 19.
With the deepening of China's aging process, changes in the age structure of the population affect the industrial structure and consumption structure in different ways and have a knock-on effect on the whole economic system. Therefore, aging is one of the objective factors affecting future carbon emissions in China. This study analyzes the impact mechanism of aging-related consumption trend on carbon emission efficiency (CEE) based on panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2019. The results show that the aging-related consumption trend is conducive to the improvement of regional CEE, and the mediation transmission mechanism of industrial structure adjustment is obvious, with a coefficient of 0.1496. The core industry closely linked to the demand for aging-related consumption is consumer services. The promotion of the consumption demand of the aging in the eastern region on the CEE and the transmission stimulation of the industrial structure adjustment are the most obvious. The mediation effect in the central and western regions is relatively weak, and the aging-related consumption demand has not formed a positive interaction with the aging industry. Therefore, improving the market construction of products and services for the aging is beneficial to achieve a virtuous cycle of aging-related consumption upgrading and carbon emission efficiency. This research can provide insights for China to promote industrial structure transformation within the aging trend and also help China meet its carbon neutrality target on schedule.
随着中国老龄化进程的加深，人口年龄结构的变化以不同的方式影响着产业结构和消费结构，并对整个经济系统产生连锁效应。因此，老龄化是影响中国未来碳排放的客观因素之一。本研究基于 2000-2019 年中国 30 个省份的面板数据，分析了老龄化相关消费趋势对碳排放效率（CEE）的影响机制。结果表明，老龄化相关消费趋势有利于提高区域 CEE，产业结构调整的中介传递机制明显，系数为 0.1496。与老龄化相关消费需求密切相关的核心产业是消费服务业。老龄化消费需求在东部地区对 CEE 的促进作用和产业结构调整的传导刺激作用最为明显，而在中部和西部地区的中介效应较弱，老龄化相关消费需求尚未与老龄化产业形成积极互动。因此，提高老龄化产品和服务的市场建设有利于实现老龄化相关消费升级和碳排放效率的良性循环。本研究可以为中国在老龄化趋势下推动产业结构转型提供参考，也有助于中国按时实现碳中和目标。
