Xu Zhongwen, Wu Yiqiong
State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China.
School of Management, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, China.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Apr 1;331:117268. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117268. Epub 2023 Jan 12.
China pushed for the unification of markets for natural resources and emissions, wherein initial allocation mechanisms have a significant impact on how well the market functions. To identify how the market works well, this paper builds an integrated framework, comprised of permits initialization and reallocation processes. Additionally, we simulate variables by 2030 through scenario analysis and machine learning methods. At the unified energy-carbon market, GDP could increase by more than 49%, while the total energy consumption and the total carbon emission increase by around 410 million tons and 711 million tons, respectively, in China. This illustrates how joint trading markets favor economic growth and emission reduction simultaneously. Besides, most of China's provinces obtain improved energy consumption and carbon emission intensities, which proves the effectiveness and importance of the unified market. However, two rebound effects are found, one is that the increased investment is not always promoting positive effects, and the other is that provinces with higher GDPs have less incentive to cut their energy use. Further, the accumulated per capita initialization type favors energy conservation, while per GDP initialization benefits economic growth and carbon reduction. It's needed that simultaneously constructing an economic and efficient incentive mechanism while effectively playing up the government's role.
中国推动自然资源和排放市场的统一，其中初始分配机制对市场运行效果有重大影响。为了确定市场如何良好运行，本文构建了一个由许可证初始化和重新分配过程组成的综合框架。此外，我们通过情景分析和机器学习方法对2030年的变量进行模拟。在中国统一的能源-碳市场中，国内生产总值（GDP）可能增长超过49%，而能源消费总量和碳排放总量分别增加约4.1亿吨和7.11亿吨。这说明了联合交易市场如何同时有利于经济增长和减排。此外，中国大多数省份的能源消费强度和碳排放强度都有所改善，这证明了统一市场的有效性和重要性。然而，发现了两种反弹效应，一种是增加的投资并不总是产生积极影响，另一种是GDP较高的省份减少能源使用的动力较小。此外，累计人均初始化类型有利于节能，而按GDP初始化则有利于经济增长和碳减排。需要在有效发挥政府作用的同时，构建经济高效的激励机制。
