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巴基斯坦丙型肝炎的流行情况及消除计划:一种考虑省级差异的自下而上的方法

Hepatitis C prevalence and elimination planning in Pakistan, a bottom-up approach accounting for provincial variation.

作者信息

Mooneyhan Ellen, Qureshi Huma, Mahmood Hassan, Tariq Muhammad, Maqbool Nabeel Ahmed, Anwar Masood, Aslam Mujahid, Azam Farooq, Blach Sarah, Khan Aamir Ghafoor, Hamid Saeed, Hussain Tanweer, Akhter Mohammad Khalil, Khan Ambreen, Khan Uzma, Khowaja Saira, Mahmood Khalid, Mazhar Samra, Nawaz Ahmad, Rose Ayub, Ghorezai Gul Sabeen Azam, Shah Sabeen, Sarwar Syeda Zahida, Razavi Homie

机构信息

Center for Disease Analysis Foundation (CDAF), Lafayette, Colorado, USA.

Ministry of National Health Services, Regulations and Coordination, Islamabad, Pakistan.

出版信息

J Viral Hepat. 2023 Apr;30(4):345-354. doi: 10.1111/jvh.13802. Epub 2023 Feb 1.

Abstract

In Pakistan, substantial changes to hepatitis C virus (HCV) programming and treatment have occurred since the 2008 nationwide serosurvey estimated a 4.8% anti-HCV prevalence. In the absence of an updated national study, this analysis uses provincial data to estimate a national prevalence and the interventions needed to achieve elimination. Using a Delphi process, epidemiologic HCV data for the four provinces of Pakistan (accounting for 97% of the population) were reviewed with 21 subject-matter experts in Pakistan. Province-level estimates were inputted into a mathematical model to estimate the national HCV disease burden in the absence of intervention (Base), and if the World Health Organization (WHO) elimination targets are achieved by 2030 (80% reduction in new infections, 90% diagnosis coverage, 80% treatment coverage, and 65% reduction in mortality: WHO Elimination). An estimated 9,746,000 (7,573,000-10,006,000) Pakistanis were living with viraemic HCV as of January 1, 2021; a viraemic prevalence of 4.3% (3.3-4.4). WHO Elimination would require an annual average of 18.8 million screens, 1.1 million treatments, and 46,700 new infections prevented anually between 2022 and 2030. Elimination would reduce total infections by 7,045,000, save 152,000 lives and prevent 104,000 incident cases of hepatocellular carcinoma from 2015 to 2030. Blood surveys, programmatic data, and expert panel input uncovered more HCV infections and lower treatment numbers in the provinces than estimated using national extrapolations, demonstrating the benefits of a bottom-up approach. Screening and treatment must increase 20 times and 5 times, respectively, to curb the HCV epidemic in Pakistan and achieve elimination by 2030.

摘要

自2008年全国血清学调查估计丙型肝炎病毒(HCV)感染率为4.8%以来,巴基斯坦的HCV防治规划和治疗发生了重大变化。在缺乏最新全国性研究的情况下,本分析使用省级数据来估计全国感染率以及实现消除所需的干预措施。通过德尔菲法,与巴基斯坦21位主题专家一起审查了巴基斯坦四个省份(占人口的97%)的HCV流行病学数据。将省级估计数输入数学模型,以估计在无干预情况下(基础情况)以及如果世界卫生组织(WHO)的消除目标在2030年实现(新感染减少80%、诊断覆盖率达到90%、治疗覆盖率达到80%以及死亡率降低65%:WHO消除目标)时的全国HCV疾病负担。截至2021年1月1日,估计有974.6万(757.3万 - 1000.6万)巴基斯坦人感染了HCV病毒血症;病毒血症感染率为4.3%(3.3 - 4.4)。要实现WHO消除目标,在2022年至2030年期间平均每年需要进行1880万次筛查、110万次治疗,并预防46700例新感染。到2030年,消除目标将使总感染数减少704.5万,挽救15.2万人的生命,并预防10.4万例肝细胞癌发病病例。血液调查、规划数据和专家小组意见显示,各省发现的HCV感染病例比通过全国推断估计的更多,而治疗人数则更少,这表明了自下而上方法的益处。为了控制巴基斯坦的HCV疫情并在2030年实现消除目标,筛查和治疗必须分别增加20倍和5倍。

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