Roetzer T, Wittenzeller M, Haeckel H, Nekovar J
Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Institut fuer Pflanzenbauwissenschaften, FG Agrarmeteorologie, Germany.
Int J Biometeorol. 2000 Aug;44(2):60-6. doi: 10.1007/s004840000062.
In order to examine the impacts of both large-scale and small-scale climate changes (urban climate effect) on the development of plants, long-term observations of four spring phenophases from ten central European regions (Hamburg, Berlin, Cologne, Frankfurt, Munich, Prague, Vienna, Zurich, Basle and Chur) were analysed. The objective of this study was to identify and compare the differences in the starting dates of the pre-spring phenophases, the beginning of flowering of the snowdrop (Galanthus nivalis) and forsythia (Forsythia sp.), and of the full-spring phenophases, the beginning of flowering of the sweet cherry (Prunus avium) and apple (Malus domestica), in urban and rural areas. The results indicate that, despite regional differences, in nearly all cases the species studied flower earlier in urbanised areas than in the corresponding rural areas. The forcing in urban areas was about 4 days for the pre-spring phenophases and about 2 days for the full-spring phenophases. The analysis of trends for the period from 1951 to 1995 showed tendencies towards an earlier flowering in all regions, but only 22% were significant at the 5% level. The trends for the period from 1980 to 1995 were much stronger for all regions and phases: the pre-spring phenophases on average became earlier by 13.9 days/decade in the urban areas and 15.3 days/decade in the rural areas, while the full-spring phenophases were 6.7 days earlier/decade in the urban areas and 9.1 days/decade earlier in the rural areas. Thus rural areas showed a higher trend towards an earlier flowering than did urban areas for the period from 1980 to 1995. However, these trends, especially for the pre-spring phenophases, turned out to be extremely variable.
为了研究大规模和小规模气候变化（城市气候效应）对植物生长发育的影响，分析了中欧十个地区（汉堡、柏林、科隆、法兰克福、慕尼黑、布拉格、维也纳、苏黎世、巴塞尔和库尔）四个春季物候期的长期观测数据。本研究的目的是识别并比较城市和农村地区早春物候期、雪花莲（雪滴花）和连翘始花期以及晚春物候期、甜樱桃和苹果始花期的起始日期差异。结果表明，尽管存在区域差异，但几乎在所有情况下，所研究的物种在城市化地区比在相应的农村地区开花更早。城市地区早春物候期的提前约为4天，晚春物候期约为2天。对1951年至1995年期间趋势的分析表明，所有地区都有开花提前的趋势，但只有22%在5%的水平上具有显著性。1980年至1995年期间，所有地区和物候期的趋势更为明显：城市地区早春物候期平均每十年提前13.9天，农村地区为15.3天，而城市地区晚春物候期每十年提前6.7天，农村地区为9.1天。因此，1980年至1995年期间，农村地区比城市地区开花提前的趋势更为明显。然而，这些趋势，尤其是早春物候期的趋势，结果显示出极大的变异性。
