Song Haitao, Guo Lirong, Jin Zhen, Liu Shengqiang
Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China.
Shanxi Key Laboratory of Mathematical Techniques and Big Data Analysis, on disease Control and Prevention, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China.
Math Biosci Eng. 2022 Sep 5;19(12):13028-13049. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022608.
African swine fever (ASF) is an acute, hemorrhagic and severe infectious disease caused by the African swine fever virus (ASFV), and leads to a serious threat to the pig industry in China. Yet the impact of the virus in the environment and contaminated swill on the ASFV transmission is unclear in China. Then we build the ASFV transmission model with the virus in the environment and swill. We compute the basic reproduction number, and prove that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when $ R_0 < 1 $ and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when $ R_0 > 1 $. Using the public information, parameter values are evaluated. PRCCs and eFAST sensitivity analysis reveal that the release rate of ASFV from asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious pigs and the proportion of pig products from infectious pigs to swill have a significant impact on the ASFV transmission. Our findings suggest that the virus in the environment and contaminated swill contribute to the ASFV transmission. Our results may help animal health to prevent and control the ASFV transmission.
非洲猪瘟（ASF）是由非洲猪瘟病毒（ASFV）引起的一种急性、出血性且严重的传染病，对中国的养猪业构成严重威胁。然而，在中国，病毒在环境及受污染泔水中对ASFV传播的影响尚不清楚。于是我们构建了包含环境及泔水中病毒的ASFV传播模型。我们计算了基本再生数，并证明当(R_0 < 1)时无病平衡点全局渐近稳定，当(R_0 > 1)时唯一的地方病平衡点全局渐近稳定。利用公开信息评估了参数值。PRCCs和eFAST敏感性分析表明，无症状和有症状感染猪的ASFV释放率以及感染猪的猪产品进入泔水的比例对ASFV传播有显著影响。我们的研究结果表明，环境及受污染泔水中的病毒促成了ASFV的传播。我们的结果可能有助于动物健康领域预防和控制ASFV的传播。
