Faculty of Engineering and Design, Kagawa University, Takamatsu, Japan.
Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation, The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Paris, France.
Risk Anal. 2023 Nov;43(11):2344-2358. doi: 10.1111/risa.14099. Epub 2023 Jan 19.
The economic impacts of pandemics can be enormous. However, lockdown and human mobility restrictions are effective policies for containing the spread of the disease. This study proposes a framework for assessing the economic impact of varying degrees of movement restrictions and examines the effectiveness of this framework in a case study examining COVID-19 control measures in Japan. First, mobile network operators data and total employment statistics on a 500-meter grid scale are used to determine the status of mobility restrictions and impacts on consumption in 30 industrial sectors. Next, the economic impacts are assessed using a spatial computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, proven to yield valuable insights into the total economic impacts of natural disasters. In sectors that implement telework and e-commerce-wholesale/retail, finance/insurance, and communication sectors-estimates of production and GDP are obtained that are close to the actual figures. The current case study is limited to Japan, but similar analysis can be conducted by using the CGE model for each country and open mobility data. Thus, the framework has potential to serve as an effective tool for assessing trade-offs between infection risks and economic impacts to inform policy-making by combining with findings from epidemiology.
大流行对经济的影响可能是巨大的。然而，封锁和限制人类流动是控制疾病传播的有效政策。本研究提出了一个评估不同程度的流动限制对经济影响的框架，并在一个案例研究中检验了该框架在评估日本 COVID-19 控制措施中的有效性。首先，利用移动网络运营商数据和 500 米网格尺度的总就业统计数据，确定移动限制的状况及其对 30 个工业部门消费的影响。其次，使用空间可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型评估经济影响，该模型已被证明能为自然灾害的总经济影响提供有价值的见解。在实施远程办公和电子商务批发/零售、金融/保险和通信部门的部门中，获得的生产和 GDP 估计值接近实际值。目前的案例研究仅限于日本，但可以通过为每个国家使用 CGE 模型和开放的流动数据进行类似的分析。因此，该框架有可能通过与流行病学研究结果相结合，成为评估感染风险和经济影响之间权衡的有效工具，为政策制定提供信息。
