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新冠疫情期间中国交通消费的经济影响:一项可计算一般均衡分析

The economic impacts of traffic consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic in China: A CGE analysis.

作者信息

Zhang Qiang, Tong Qiong

机构信息

School of Economic and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China.

出版信息

Transp Policy (Oxf). 2021 Dec;114:330-337. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.10.018. Epub 2021 Oct 22.

Abstract

The transportation sector has played an important role during the COVID-19 pandemic. Like many industries, it experienced a sharp decline during the pandemic. The reduced traffic consumption has been caused by objective conditions, such as traffic control measures, and subjective factors, such as the perception of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study uses the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the economic impacts of traffic consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic in China. Moreover, to evaluate the impact of the government's economic stimulus policy related to transportation, this study examines the policy effects of transportation investment. This study suggests that, first, China's macroeconomy has been severely affected by reduced traffic consumption. The period when the pandemic was most severe had the largest GDP decrease (0.49%). Second, transportation consumption is closely associated with the output of all industries. As the pandemic worsens, the output of all sectors declines more. Of the transport sectors, road transport has the largest output decrease (10.17%), followed by railway (1.76%) and air sectors (1.53%). The service industry is the most negatively affected among the non-transportation sectors. Finally, transportation infrastructure investment can effectively promote the economy and create jobs. In addition, railway investment plays a more positive role in the economy than road and air transports. The findings provide a detailed understanding of the economic impact of the significantly reduced traffic consumption at different stages of the pandemic.

摘要

在新冠疫情期间,交通运输部门发挥了重要作用。与许多行业一样,它在疫情期间经历了急剧衰退。交通消费的减少是由交通管制措施等客观条件以及对新冠疫情的认知等主观因素造成的。本研究使用可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型来考察新冠疫情期间中国交通消费的经济影响。此外,为评估政府与交通相关的经济刺激政策的影响,本研究考察了交通投资的政策效果。本研究表明,第一,中国宏观经济受到交通消费减少的严重影响。疫情最严重时期国内生产总值下降幅度最大(0.49%)。第二,交通消费与所有行业的产出密切相关。随着疫情恶化,所有部门的产出下降幅度更大。在运输部门中,道路运输产出下降幅度最大(10.17%),其次是铁路(1.76%)和航空部门(1.53%)。在非运输部门中,服务业受到的负面影响最大。最后,交通基础设施投资能够有效促进经济增长并创造就业机会。此外,铁路投资对经济的促进作用比公路和航空运输更为积极。这些研究结果详细展现了疫情不同阶段交通消费大幅减少所带来的经济影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/223b/8532030/22cb294c79d9/gr1_lrg.jpg

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