Alrebei Odi Fawwaz, Al-Ansari Tareq, Al-Kuwari Mohammad S, Amhamed Abdulkarem
Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute (QEERI), Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Doha 34110, Qatar.
College of Science and Engineering, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Qatar Foundation, Doha 34110, Qatar.
Foods. 2023 Jan 4;12(2):230. doi: 10.3390/foods12020230.
Finding a balance between the capacity for production and the rising demand for food is the first step toward achieving food security. To achieve sustainable development on a national scale, decision-makers must use an energy, water, and food nexus approach that considers the relationships and interactions among these three resources as well as the synergies and trade-offs that result from the way they are handled. Therefore, this paper evaluates the Energy-Water-Food Nexus Profile of Qatar at a superstructural level by applying the Business-As-Usual (BAU) storyline; thus, trends of past data have been used to provide future projections to 2050 using the statistical prediction tools such as the compound annual growth rates of food demand (CAGRFD), international supply (CAGRFI), and the average local food supply change factor (c¯). Once the BAU storyline has been generated, the source-to-demand correlations have been defined for each food category. Such correlations include the annual and average ratios of the local food supply to the total demand (i.e., αi and α¯) and the ratios of the local food supply to the international supply (i.e., βi and β¯). In addition, as an effort to identify the required action to reach food self-sustainability, the additional local food supply to achieve (xi,add) and its ratio to the local demand (γ) have been defined. The highest average ratio of the local food supply to the total demand (αi) was found for the meat category, which was estimated to be 48.3%. Finally, to evaluate the feasibility of attaining food self-sustainability in Qatar, the water consumption (Vw,i) and its corresponding required energy for each food category have been estimated.
在粮食产量与不断增长的粮食需求之间找到平衡是实现粮食安全的第一步。为了在国家层面实现可持续发展，决策者必须采用能源 - 水 - 食物关联方法，该方法要考虑这三种资源之间的关系和相互作用，以及因资源管理方式而产生的协同效应和权衡取舍。因此，本文通过应用常规情景（BAU）故事情节，在超结构层面评估卡塔尔的能源 - 水 - 食物关联概况；具体而言，利用过去数据的趋势，借助复合年增长率（如粮食需求复合年增长率（CAGRFD）、国际供应复合年增长率（CAGRFI）以及当地粮食供应变化平均因子（c¯））等统计预测工具，对2050年的未来情况进行预测。一旦生成常规情景故事情节，就为每个食品类别定义了从源头到需求的相关性。这些相关性包括当地粮食供应与总需求的年度和平均比率（即αi和α¯）以及当地粮食供应与国际供应的比率（即βi和β¯）。此外，为了确定实现粮食自给自足所需采取的行动，还定义了要实现的额外当地粮食供应量（xi,add）及其与当地需求的比率（γ）。肉类类别的当地粮食供应与总需求的平均比率（αi）最高，估计为48.3%。最后，为了评估卡塔尔实现粮食自给自足的可行性，估算了每个食品类别的用水量（Vw,i）及其相应所需的能源。
