Hare E H, Moran P A, Macfarlane A
J Epidemiol Community Health. 1981 Jun;35(2):77-82. doi: 10.1136/jech.35.2.77.
Seasonal variation in the rates of stillbirth, and of deaths under the age of one year, were studied for England and Wales in order to examine (a) changes in the seasonal variation over the years and (b) the correlation between seasonal rates and seasonal temperatures. The quarterly rates of stillbirths were studied for the period 1928-78; and of deaths under the age of one year, in six different age groups, for the period 1912-78. A disappearance of seasonal variation in rates ('deseasonality') occurrred from stillbirths in about 1950, and for neonatal deaths in about 1965. For deaths at 1-2 months a trend towards deseasonality has been apparent since 1955, but there has been no such trends for deaths at 3-11 months of age. In the period before deseasonality, and for the first quarter of the year, there was a high negative correlation between the neonatal death rate and the mean temperature in England and Wales but this correlation fell as the seasonal variation in rates fell. The findings suggest that seasonal variation in the neonatal death rate was closely related to winter temperatures during the period 1921-60. For deaths at 1-11 months old, there has been and still is a relation between temperature and seasonal variation in rates, but the relation was less close than for the neonatal death rate.
为了研究以下两点，我们对英格兰和威尔士死产率及一岁以下婴儿死亡率的季节性变化展开了研究：（a）多年来季节性变化的改变；（b）季节性死亡率与季节温度之间的相关性。我们研究了1928年至1978年期间的季度死产率；以及1912年至1978年期间六个不同年龄组一岁以下婴儿的死亡率。死产率的季节性变化（“去季节性化”）大约在1950年消失，新生儿死亡率的季节性变化大约在1965年消失。对于1至2个月大婴儿的死亡，自1955年以来去季节性化的趋势就很明显，但3至11个月大婴儿的死亡不存在这种趋势。在去季节性化之前以及每年的第一季度，英格兰和威尔士的新生儿死亡率与平均温度之间存在高度负相关，但随着死亡率季节性变化的下降，这种相关性也随之降低。研究结果表明，1921年至1960年期间新生儿死亡率的季节性变化与冬季温度密切相关。对于1至11个月大婴儿的死亡，过去和现在温度与死亡率季节性变化之间都存在关联，但这种关联不如新生儿死亡率密切。
