Garner Wesley B, Smith Benjamin D, Ludmir Ethan B, Wakefield Daniel V, Shabason Jacob, Williams Grant R, Martin Michelle Y, Wang Yuefeng, Ballo Matthew T, VanderWalde Noam A
Department of Radiation Oncology, West Cancer Center, Memphis, TN, United States of America; Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN, United States of America.
Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, United States of America.
J Geriatr Oncol. 2023 Jan;14(1):101393. doi: 10.1016/j.jgo.2022.10.008. Epub 2022 Oct 28.
Cancer remains a substantial burden on society. Our objective was to update projections on the number of new cancer diagnoses in the United States by age, race, ethnicity, and sex through 2040.
Population-based cancer incidence data were obtained using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data. Population estimates were made using the 2010 US Census data population projections to calculate future cancer incidence. Trends in age-adjusted incidence rates for 23 cancer types along with total cancers were calculated and incorporated into a second projection model.
If cancer incidence remains stable, annual cancer diagnoses are projected to increase by 29.5% from 1.86 million to 2.4 million between 2020 and 2040. This increase outpaces the projected US population growth of 12.3% over the same period. The population of older adults is projected to represent an increasing proportion of total cancer diagnoses with patients ≥65 years old comprising 69% of all new cancer diagnoses and patients ≥85 years old representing 13% of new diagnoses by 2040. Cancer diagnoses are projected to increase in racial minority groups, with a projected 44% increase in Black Americans (from 222,000 to 320,000 annually), and 86% in Hispanic Americans (from 175,000 to 326,000 annually).
The landscape of cancer care will continue to change over the next several decades. The burden of disease will remain substantial, and the growing proportion of older and minority patients with cancer remains of particular interest. These projections should help guide future health policy and research priorities.
癌症仍然是社会的重大负担。我们的目标是更新对美国到2040年按年龄、种族、族裔和性别划分的新发癌症诊断数量的预测。
使用监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据获取基于人群的癌症发病率数据。利用2010年美国人口普查数据人口预测进行人口估计，以计算未来癌症发病率。计算了23种癌症类型以及所有癌症的年龄调整发病率趋势，并将其纳入第二个预测模型。
如果癌症发病率保持稳定，预计2020年至2040年间，每年的癌症诊断数将增加29.5%，从186万例增至240万例。这一增长速度超过了同期预计的美国人口12.3%的增长速度。预计老年人群在所有癌症诊断中所占比例将不断增加，到2040年，65岁及以上患者将占所有新发癌症诊断的69%，85岁及以上患者将占新发诊断的13%。预计少数族裔群体的癌症诊断数将增加，预计非裔美国人将增加44%（从每年22.2万例增至32万例），西班牙裔美国人将增加86%（从每年17.5万例增至32.6万例）。
在未来几十年中，癌症护理格局将持续变化。疾病负担仍将沉重，癌症老年患者和少数族裔患者比例不断增加尤其值得关注。这些预测应有助于指导未来的卫生政策和研究重点。
