Business Economics Group, Department of Social Sciences, Wageningen University and Research, Hollandseweg 1 Building 201 P.O. Box 8130, 6700 EW Wageningen, the Netherlands; School of Business and Management, Bandung Institute of Technology, Jl. Ganesa no.10, 40132 Bandung, Indonesia.
School of Business, IPB University, Jl. Raya Pajajaran, 16151 Bogor, Indonesia.
Prev Vet Med. 2023 Mar;212:105833. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2022.105833. Epub 2022 Dec 29.
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 is considered endemic in most parts of Indonesia and constitutes an important risk for broiler production, especially in Western Java which has the highest poultry population in the country. Most broiler farms in Western Java are smallholder farms that operate under different business types: independent (i.e., revenues based on market price and live bird weight), price-contract (i.e., revenues based on a contract selling price and live bird weight) or makloon (i.e., revenues based on a management fee per sold bird). Many studies focus on the epidemiological impacts of HPAI at the regional level, and insights into the economic impact at the farm level are scarce, especially in the Indonesian context. Meanwhile, a single HPAI outbreak could disrupt smallholder broiler farmers' primary source of income. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the economic impact of HPAI outbreaks under different response scenarios (i.e., no action, stamping out, and early selling) on typical Western Java smallholder broiler farms. Furthermore, the effect of different farm business types and the existence of a sick-bird market on the economic effects of HPAI outbreaks were evaluated. We developed a dynamic stochastic bio-economic simulation model to simulate epidemiological and economic impacts of HPAI outbreaks on a typical Western Java smallholder broiler farm during one production round. Our results show that the economic consequences of HPAI outbreaks for independent and price-contract farms are considerable, ranging from, on average, 1.2-62.7 million Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) losses (€76.9 to €3919), depending on the moment of and response to infection, compared to an expected gross margin of 5.3 million IDR (€331) under normal circumstances. The economic loss for makloon farms was substantially lower than for other business types, reducing their incentive to implement biosecurity. The economic impacts were sensitive to changes in a diverse set of parameters, including disease transmission rate, detection threshold, and stamping-out compensation. The losses in a scenario with stamping out were higher than in other scenarios, especially when stamping out happened near the end of the production round. Moreover, reacting to an outbreak by selling chickens early gave the lowest economic losses, incentivizing farmers to engage in behavior with a high disease transmission risk. Therefore, the results of this study suggest that it is important to consider the economic perspective of individual farmers when designing HPAI mitigation programs. Financial incentives for farmers to control HPAI differ largely between farm business types.
高致病性禽流感 (HPAI) H5N1 在印度尼西亚大部分地区被认为是地方性的，这对肉鸡生产构成了重要风险，尤其是在该国拥有最高家禽数量的西爪哇省。西爪哇省的大多数肉鸡养殖场都是小农养殖场，经营着不同的商业模式：独立经营（即收入基于市场价格和活鸡体重）、价格合同（即收入基于合同销售价格和活鸡体重）或 makloon（即收入基于每只售出鸡的管理费）。许多研究都集中在 HPAI 对地区层面的流行病学影响上，而对农场层面的经济影响的了解却很少，尤其是在印度尼西亚的情况下。同时，一次 HPAI 爆发可能会扰乱小农肉鸡养殖户的主要收入来源。因此，本研究旨在评估不同应对情景（即不采取行动、扑杀和提前销售）下 HPAI 爆发对典型西爪哇小农肉鸡养殖场的经济影响。此外，还评估了不同农场商业模式和病鸡市场的存在对 HPAI 爆发经济影响的影响。我们开发了一个动态随机生物经济模拟模型，以模拟 HPAI 爆发对一个典型的西爪哇小农肉鸡养殖场在一个生产周期内的流行病学和经济影响。我们的结果表明，对于独立和价格合同农场来说，HPAI 爆发的经济后果是相当大的，平均损失在 120 万至 6270 万印度尼西亚卢比（€76.9 至 €3919）之间，具体取决于感染的时间和应对方式，而在正常情况下，预计毛利润为 530 万印度尼西亚卢比（€331）。makloon 农场的经济损失明显低于其他商业模式，这降低了他们实施生物安全的积极性。经济影响对一系列不同参数的变化很敏感，包括疾病传播率、检测阈值和扑杀补偿。扑杀情况下的损失高于其他情况下的损失，尤其是在扑杀发生在生产周期接近尾声时。此外，通过提前出售鸡来应对疫情会导致最低的经济损失，这激励了农民采取高疾病传播风险的行为。因此，本研究结果表明，在设计 HPAI 缓解计划时，考虑个体农民的经济观点很重要。对农民控制 HPAI 的财务激励在农场商业模式之间存在很大差异。
