International School, Vietnam National University Hanoi, Hanoi, Vietnam
Thang Long Institute of Mathematics and Applied Sciences (TIMAS), Thang Long University, Hanoi, Vietnam.
Tob Control. 2024 Mar 19;33(e1):e48-e53. doi: 10.1136/tc-2022-057689.
Vietnam is a country with very high smoking rates among men. According to a Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) conducted in 2015, the daily smoking prevalence among Vietnamese men was 39%.
We used data from the 2010 and 2015 Vietnamese GATSs and cigarette price data from General Statistics Office of Vietnam. Since smoking prevalence is low among women, we only considered men. Using discrete-time hazard models, we estimated the effect of cigarette prices on smoking onset and cessation. Sensitivity analyses are conducted using different model specifications.
We find that higher cigarette prices reduce the probability of smoking onset. A 1% increase in the cigarette price reduces the hazard of smoking onset by 1.2% (95% CI -2.12% to -0.28%). This suggests that increases in tobacco taxation, which translate to price increases, can reduce smoking onset. We did not find evidence that cigarette prices impact smoking cessation among men in Vietnam.
Vietnam should continue to increase excise taxes on tobacco products to reduce smoking onset. Since smokers are resilient to excise tax increases, other tobacco control policies, such as smoke-free areas and tobacco advertisement bans, should be better enforced to encourage people to quit. Other policies not yet implemented, such as plain packaging of tobacco products, may also encourage smokers to quit.
越南是一个男性吸烟率非常高的国家。根据 2015 年进行的全球成人烟草调查（GATS），越南男性的日吸烟率为 39%。
我们使用了 2010 年和 2015 年越南 GATS 的数据以及越南统计局的香烟价格数据。由于女性的吸烟率较低，我们只考虑了男性。使用离散时间风险模型，我们估计了香烟价格对吸烟开始和戒烟的影响。使用不同的模型规范进行了敏感性分析。
我们发现较高的香烟价格降低了吸烟开始的概率。香烟价格上涨 1%会降低 1.2%（95%CI -2.12%至-0.28%）的吸烟开始风险。这表明，提高烟草税，即价格上涨，可以减少吸烟开始。我们没有发现香烟价格对越南男性戒烟有影响的证据。
越南应继续提高烟草产品的消费税，以减少吸烟开始。由于吸烟者对消费税的增加有一定的抵抗力，因此应更好地执行其他烟草控制政策，如无烟区和禁止烟草广告，以鼓励人们戒烟。其他尚未实施的政策，如烟草产品的平装，也可能鼓励吸烟者戒烟。
