Vignoli Daniele, Tocchioni Valentina, Mattei Alessandra
University of Florence, Viale Morgagni 59, Italy.
Adv Life Course Res. 2020 Sep;45:100308. doi: 10.1016/j.alcr.2019.100308. Epub 2019 Sep 26.
This paper aims to advance our understanding of entry into employment with uncertain conditions in Italy and its causal impact on the onset of the fertility process. We adopt the potential outcome approach to causal inference so as to quantify the net effect of having a first job with a temporary or a permanent contract on the propensity to have a first child within the first five years of employment. The analysis is based on retrospective data from the nationally representative 2009 Family and Social Subjects survey. Our results suggest that 7% of potential first-birth postponement among women and 5% of potential postponement among men is attributable to jobs with uncertain conditions. These individuals would have had a first child if they had had a permanent job. For women, potential postponement is elevated among those with higher education (reaching 16%), while for men potential postponement is especially visible among those with low and medium education. With this paper we quantify a non-negligible negative effect for early exposure to labour market uncertainties on potential first-birth postponement in Italy.
本文旨在加深我们对意大利在就业条件不确定的情况下进入职场的理解，以及其对生育过程开始的因果影响。我们采用潜在结果法进行因果推断，以量化签订临时或长期合同的第一份工作对就业头五年内生育头胎倾向的净影响。该分析基于具有全国代表性的2009年家庭与社会主题调查的回顾性数据。我们的结果表明，女性中7%的潜在头胎生育推迟和男性中5%的潜在推迟可归因于就业条件不确定的工作。如果这些人有一份长期工作，他们本会生育头胎。对于女性，高学历者的潜在推迟率有所上升（达到16%），而对于男性，潜在推迟在低学历和中等学历者中尤为明显。通过本文，我们量化了意大利早期接触劳动力市场不确定性对潜在头胎生育推迟的不可忽视的负面影响。
