The impact of job uncertainty on first-birth postponement.

This paper aims to advance our understanding of entry into employment with uncertain conditions in Italy and its causal impact on the onset of the fertility process. We adopt the potential outcome approach to causal inference so as to quantify the net effect of having a first job with a temporary or a permanent contract on the propensity to have a first child within the first five years of employment. The analysis is based on retrospective data from the nationally representative 2009 Family and Social Subjects survey. Our results suggest that 7% of potential first-birth postponement among women and 5% of potential postponement among men is attributable to jobs with uncertain conditions. These individuals would have had a first child if they had had a permanent job. For women, potential postponement is elevated among those with higher education (reaching 16%), while for men potential postponement is especially visible among those with low and medium education. With this paper we quantify a non-negligible negative effect for early exposure to labour market uncertainties on potential first-birth postponement in Italy.