1Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, USDA, Fort Collins, CO.
2Ruminant Health, USDA, Bozeman, MT.
J Am Vet Med Assoc. 2023 Jan 27;261(4):1-7. doi: 10.2460/javma.22.09.0424.
American bison (Bison bison) quarantine protocols were established to prevent transmission of brucellosis outside the Greater Yellowstone Area, while allowing for distribution of wild bison for conservation and cultural purposes. Quarantine standards require rigorous testing over 900 days which has led to the release of over 200 bison to Native American tribes. Standards were evaluated using 15 years of laboratory and management data to minimize the burden of testing and increase the number of brucellosis-free bison available for distribution.
All bison (n = 578) from Yellowstone National Park were corralled by the National Park Service and United States Department of Agriculture.
A statistical and management evaluation of the bison quarantine program was performed. Bayesian latent-class modeling was used to predict the probability of nondetection of a seroreactor at various time points, as well as the probability of seroconversion by days in quarantine.
At 300 days, 1 in 1,000 infected bison (0.0014 probability) would not be detected but could potentially seroconvert; the seroconversion model predicted 99.9% would seroconvert by day 294, and 12.8% of bison enrolled in quarantine would seroconvert over time. Using a 300-day quarantine period, it would take 30 years to potentially miss 1 seroreactor out of over 8,000 bison enrolled in the quarantine program.
Reducing the quarantine program requirements from over 900 days to 300 days would allow management of quarantined bison in coordination with seasonal movement of bison herds and triple the number of brucellosis-free bison available for distribution.
美国野牛（Bison bison）检疫规程的设立旨在防止大黄石地区以外的布鲁氏菌病传播，同时允许为保护和文化目的分配野生野牛。检疫标准要求在 900 多天的时间里进行严格的测试，这导致了超过 200 头野牛被释放给美国原住民部落。为了最大限度地减少测试负担并增加可供分发的无布鲁氏菌病野牛数量，利用 15 年的实验室和管理数据对标准进行了评估。
黄石国家公园的所有野牛（n = 578）都被国家公园管理局和美国农业部围捕。
对野牛检疫计划进行了统计和管理评估。贝叶斯潜在类别建模用于预测在不同时间点检测到血清反应阳性个体的概率，以及在检疫期间发生血清转化的概率。
在 300 天时，1000 头感染的野牛中有 1 头（0.0014 的概率）可能未被发现，但可能会发生血清转化；血清转化模型预测 99.9%的野牛会在第 294 天发生血清转化，12.8%的进入检疫的野牛会随着时间的推移发生血清转化。使用 300 天的检疫期，在超过 8000 头参与检疫计划的野牛中，可能需要 30 年才能错过 1 头血清反应阳性个体。
将检疫计划的要求从超过 900 天减少到 300 天，将允许与野牛群季节性移动协调管理检疫中的野牛，并将可供分发的无布鲁氏菌病野牛数量增加两倍。
