Baltagi Badi H, Deng Ying, Li Jing, Yang Zhenlin
Department of Economics and Center for Policy Research Syracuse University Syracuse New York USA.
Department of Economics Leicester University Leicester UK.
J Reg Sci. 2022 Nov 2. doi: 10.1111/jors.12626.
This paper studies the impact of urban density, city government efficiency, and medical resources on COVID-19 infection and death outcomes in China. We adopt a simultaneous spatial dynamic panel data model to account for (i) the simultaneity of infection and death outcomes, (ii) the spatial pattern of the transmission, (iii) the intertemporal dynamics of the disease, and (iv) the unobserved city-specific and time-specific effects. We find that, while population density increases the level of infections, government efficiency significantly mitigates the negative impact of urban density. We also find that the availability of medical resources improves public health outcomes conditional on lagged infections. Moreover, there exists significant heterogeneity at different phases of the epidemiological cycle.
本文研究了城市密度、市政府效率和医疗资源对中国新冠肺炎感染和死亡结果的影响。我们采用联立空间动态面板数据模型来考虑：（i）感染和死亡结果的同时性；（ii）传播的空间模式；（iii）疾病的跨期动态；以及（iv）未观测到的城市特定和时间特定效应。我们发现，虽然人口密度会提高感染水平，但政府效率显著减轻了城市密度的负面影响。我们还发现，在滞后感染的条件下，医疗资源的可获得性改善了公共卫生结果。此外，在疫情周期的不同阶段存在显著的异质性。
