Li Bingjing, Ma Lin
Department of Economics, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
J Urban Econ. 2022 Jan;127:103351. doi: 10.1016/j.jue.2021.103351. Epub 2021 Apr 15.
This paper evaluates the impacts of migration flows and transportation infrastructure on the spatial transmission of COVID-19 in China. Prefectures with larger bilateral migration flows and shorter travel distances with Hubei, the epicenter of the outbreak, experienced a wider spread of COVID-19. In addition, richer prefectures with higher incomes were better able to contain the virus at the early stages of community transmission. Using a spatial general equilibrium model, we show that around 28% of the infections outside Hubei province can be explained by the rapid development in transportation infrastructure and the liberalization of migration restrictions in the recent decade.
本文评估了人口流动和交通基础设施对中国新冠病毒空间传播的影响。与疫情爆发中心湖北省双边人口流动规模较大且旅行距离较短的地区，新冠病毒传播范围更广。此外，收入较高的富裕地区在社区传播早期更有能力控制病毒。通过空间一般均衡模型，我们表明，湖北省以外约28%的感染病例可归因于近十年来交通基础设施的快速发展和人口迁移限制的放宽。
