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《联合早报》洞察:大学生旅行导致当地新冠病毒传播。

JUE Insight: College student travel contributed to local COVID-19 spread.

作者信息

Mangrum Daniel, Niekamp Paul

机构信息

Research and Statistics Group, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 33 Liberty Street, New York, NY, 10045, United States.

Department of Economics, Ball State University, 2000 N McKinley Ave, Muncie, IN, 47306.

出版信息

J Urban Econ. 2022 Jan;127:103311. doi: 10.1016/j.jue.2020.103311. Epub 2020 Dec 4.

Abstract

Due to the suspension of in-person classes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, students at universities with earlier spring breaks traveled and returned to campus while those with later spring breaks largely did not. We use variation in academic calendars to study how travel affected the evolution of COVID-19 cases and mortality. Estimates imply that counties with more early spring break students had a higher growth rate of cases than counties with fewer early spring break students. The increase in case growth rates peaked two weeks after spring break. Effects are larger for universities with students more likely to travel through airports, to New York City, and to popular Florida destinations. Consistent with secondary spread to more vulnerable populations, we find a delayed increase in mortality growth rates. Lastly, we present evidence that viral infection transmission due to college student travel also occurred prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

摘要

由于应对新冠疫情而暂停面授课程,春假较早的大学的学生出行并返回校园,而春假较晚的大学的学生大多没有。我们利用校历差异来研究出行如何影响新冠病例和死亡率的演变。估计结果表明,春假较早的学生较多的县的病例增长率高于春假较早的学生较少的县。病例增长率的上升在春假后两周达到峰值。对于学生更有可能通过机场出行、前往纽约市以及前往热门佛罗里达目的地的大学,影响更大。与病毒向更脆弱人群的二次传播一致,我们发现死亡率增长率出现延迟上升。最后,我们提供证据表明,大学生出行导致的病毒感染传播在新冠疫情之前也有发生。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ab5e/7962882/06fb669d8e48/gr1_lrg.jpg

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