Mimar Sayat, Soriano-Paños David, Kirkley Alec, Barbosa Hugo, Sadilek Adam, Arenas Alex, Gómez-Gardeñes Jesus, Ghoshal Gourab
Department of Physics & Astronomy, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14607, USA.
Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência, 2780-156 Oeiras, Portugal.
PNAS Nexus. 2022 Sep 7;1(4):pgac178. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac178. eCollection 2022 Sep.
While significant effort has been devoted to understand the role of intraurban characteristics on sustainability and growth, much remains to be understood about the effect of interurban interactions and the role cities have in determining each other's urban welfare. Here we consider a global mobility network of population flows between cities as a proxy for the communication between these regions, and analyze how it correlates with socioeconomic indicators. We use several measures of centrality to rank cities according to their importance in the mobility network, finding PageRank to be the most effective measure for reflecting these prosperity indicators. Our analysis reveals that the characterization of the welfare of cities based on mobility information hinges on their corresponding development stage. Namely, while network-based predictions of welfare correlate well with economic indicators in mature cities, for developing urban areas additional information about the prosperity of their mobility neighborhood is needed. We develop a simple generative model for the allocation of population flows out of a city that balances the costs and benefits of interaction with other cities that are successful, finding that it provides a strong fit to the flows observed in the global mobility network and highlights the differences in flow patterns between developed and developing urban regions. Our results hint towards the importance of leveraging interurban connections in service of urban development and welfare.
虽然人们已经付出了巨大努力来理解城市内部特征对可持续性和增长的作用，但关于城市间相互作用的影响以及城市在决定彼此城市福祉中所起的作用，仍有许多有待了解。在这里，我们将城市间人口流动的全球移动网络视为这些地区之间交流的代理，并分析它与社会经济指标的相关性。我们使用几种中心性度量方法，根据城市在移动网络中的重要性对其进行排名，发现PageRank是反映这些繁荣指标的最有效方法。我们的分析表明，基于移动性信息对城市福祉的表征取决于其相应的发展阶段。也就是说，虽然基于网络的福祉预测与成熟城市的经济指标密切相关，但对于发展中城市地区，还需要有关其移动邻域繁荣程度的额外信息。我们开发了一个简单的生成模型，用于分配城市流出的人口流动，该模型平衡了与其他成功城市互动的成本和收益，发现它与全球移动网络中观察到的流动非常吻合，并突出了发达和发展中城市地区流动模式的差异。我们的结果表明，利用城市间联系促进城市发展和福祉具有重要意义。
