Buyukkececi Zafer, Leopold Thomas
University of Cologne, Albertus-Magnus-Platz, 50923, Cologne, Germany.
Adv Life Course Res. 2021 Mar;47:100359. doi: 10.1016/j.alcr.2020.100359. Epub 2020 Jul 21.
This study examined social interaction effects on family formation and dissolution, asking whether fertility, marital, and divorce behavior spread in the sibling network. Using panel data from the German SOEP (1984 - 2016; N = 4,521 individuals), we estimated discrete-time event history models with random effects at the individual to examine whether siblings' transitions to parenthood, marriage, and divorce influence an individual's chance to have children, marry, and divorce. Results show that the hazard of becoming a parent increased in the short term after a sibling had a child. Similarly, the hazard of getting married increased following a sibling's marriage. Tentative evidence also suggested that transition rates to divorce increased in the longer term following a sibling's divorce. Furthermore, we found evidence for social interaction effects across different transitions in the process of family formation, as the transition rates to marriage decreased after a sibling divorced. Conversely, the risk of divorce decreased following a sibling's entry to marriage. Overall, these findings illustrate that the impact of network partners on demographic behavior is not limited to the same behavioral domain and might be negative as well as positive.
本研究考察了社会互动对家庭组建和解体的影响，探讨生育、婚姻和离婚行为是否会在兄弟姐妹网络中传播。利用德国社会经济面板（SOEP）的面板数据（1984 - 2016年；N = 4521人），我们估计了个体层面具有随机效应的离散时间事件史模型，以检验兄弟姐妹向为人父母、结婚和离婚的转变是否会影响个体生育、结婚和离婚的几率。结果表明，在兄弟姐妹生育孩子后的短期内，自己成为父母的风险增加。同样，在兄弟姐妹结婚后，自己结婚的风险也会增加。初步证据还表明，在兄弟姐妹离婚后的较长时期内，离婚的转变率会上升。此外，我们发现了家庭组建过程中不同转变之间存在社会互动效应的证据，因为在兄弟姐妹离婚后，结婚的转变率会下降。相反，在兄弟姐妹结婚后，离婚的风险会降低。总体而言，这些发现表明网络伙伴对人口行为的影响不仅限于相同的行为领域，可能是积极的，也可能是消极的。
