Waller Maureen R, Peters H Elizabeth
Department of Policy Analysis and Management, Cornell University, 257 MVR Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA.
Soc Sci Res. 2008 Dec;37(4):1188-99. doi: 10.1016/j.ssresearch.2008.05.010.
Using data from the Fragile Families Study, we examine how unmarried parents' risk of divorce influences their decision to marry. Regression results show that unmarried parents with a high predicted probability of marital dissolution (based on estimates of marital dissolution for a sample of initially married mothers with similar characteristics) had significantly lower odds of marriage to the father of their child even after controlling for individual and relationship characteristics expected to influence marriage transitions. The dissolution propensity we examine also includes a measure of the local divorce climate. As such, our results provide support for the argument that high rates of divorce in the population have led to a fear of divorce among unmarried parents which reduces their probability of marriage.
利用脆弱家庭研究的数据，我们考察了未婚父母的离婚风险如何影响他们的结婚决定。回归结果显示，即使在控制了预期会影响婚姻转变的个人和关系特征之后，婚姻解体预测概率较高的未婚父母（基于具有相似特征的初婚母亲样本的婚姻解体估计）与孩子父亲结婚的几率显著较低。我们考察的解体倾向还包括对当地离婚氛围的一种衡量。因此，我们的结果为以下观点提供了支持：总体上较高的离婚率导致未婚父母对离婚产生恐惧，从而降低了他们结婚的概率。
