Shi Jiangfeng, Li Jinbao, Zhang David D, Zheng Jingyun, Shi Shiyuan, Ge Quansheng, Lee Harry F, Zhao Yesi, Zhang Jie, Lu Huayu
Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Coast and Island Development, School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
Department of Geography, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Sci Bull (Beijing). 2017 Jan 15;62(1):40-45. doi: 10.1016/j.scib.2016.11.005. Epub 2016 Nov 22.
China is a traditional agriculture based country and one main region for crop production is southeastern China where temperature is a dominant climate variable affecting agriculture. Temperature and social disturbances both influence crop production, yet distinguishing their relative impacts is difficult due to a lack of reliable, high-resolution historical climatic records before the very recent period. Here we present the first tree-ring based warm-season temperature reconstruction for southeastern China, a core region of the East Asian monsoon, for the past 227years. The reconstruction target was April-July mean temperature, and our model explained 60.6% of the observed temperature variance during 1953-2012. Spatial correlation analysis showed that the reconstruction is representative of April-July temperature change over most of eastern China. The reconstructed temperature series agrees well with China-scale (heavily weighted in eastern China) agricultural production index values quite well at decadal timescales. The impacts of social upheavals on food production, such as those in the period 1920-1949, were confirmed after climatic influences were excluded. Our study should help distinguish the influence of social disturbance and warm-season temperature on grain productivity in the core agricultural region of China during the past two centuries.
中国是一个传统的农业大国，作物生产的一个主要区域是中国东南部，那里温度是影响农业的主要气候变量。温度和社会动荡都会影响作物生产，但由于近期之前缺乏可靠的高分辨率历史气候记录，很难区分它们的相对影响。在此，我们展示了东亚季风核心区中国东南部过去227年基于树木年轮的暖季温度重建。重建目标是4月至7月平均温度，我们的模型解释了1953 - 2012年期间观测到的温度变化的60.6%。空间相关性分析表明，该重建代表了中国东部大部分地区4月至7月的温度变化。重建的温度序列在十年时间尺度上与中国尺度（在中国东部权重较大）的农业生产指数值相当吻合。在排除气候影响后，证实了社会动荡对粮食生产的影响，例如1920 - 1949年期间的影响。我们的研究应有助于区分过去两个世纪社会动荡和暖季温度对中国核心农业区粮食生产力的影响。
