Annenberg Public Policy Center, University of Pennsylvania.
Health Psychol. 2023 Jun;42(6):388-402. doi: 10.1037/hea0001262. Epub 2023 Feb 2.
To determine the influence of two representative metrics of epidemiological risk, changes in new infections, and disease prevalence, on people's risk judgments and disease-prevention behaviors.
Four experiments were conducted from August 2020 to May 2021. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants were exposed to information about different directions of change (upward and downward) and varying levels of prevalence of an infectious disease. In Experiments 3 and 4, participants were exposed to information about only one direction of change (upward or downward) and varying levels of prevalence. Participants reported risk judgments and intentions to engage in disease-prevention behaviors for each disease situation presented to them.
When both the direction of change and levels of prevalence varied, risk judgments and intentions were more influenced by change (vs. prevalence) information. Participants' reliance on prevalence information to guide risk judgments increased when they were presented with only an upward or downward change, particularly for situations with worsening infections. In all cases, the effects of epidemiological information on behavioral intentions were mediated by its effects on risk judgments.
Information about changes in infections consistently influences people's risk judgments and drive subsequent behavioral response. The impact of prevalence information, however, is limited to situations in which changes in infections are stable, such that it affects risk judgments and behavior decisions only when changes in infections demonstrate a constant upward or downward direction. The results point to the need for public health interventions to increase the impact of prevalence information. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).
确定两种具有代表性的流行病学风险指标（新发感染的变化和疾病流行率）对人们风险判断和疾病预防行为的影响。
本研究于 2020 年 8 月至 2021 年 5 月进行了四项实验。在实验 1 和实验 2 中，参与者接触到有关传染病不同变化方向（上升和下降）和不同流行水平的信息。在实验 3 和实验 4 中，参与者仅接触到一种变化方向（上升或下降）和不同流行水平的信息。对于呈现给他们的每种疾病情况，参与者报告了风险判断和参与疾病预防行为的意图。
当变化方向和流行水平都发生变化时，风险判断和意图更多地受到变化（而非流行）信息的影响。当参与者仅接触到上升或下降的变化时，他们会更多地依赖流行信息来指导风险判断，特别是在感染情况恶化的情况下。在所有情况下，流行病学信息对行为意图的影响都是通过其对风险判断的影响来介导的。
有关感染变化的信息始终会影响人们的风险判断，并推动随后的行为反应。然而，流行信息的影响仅限于感染变化稳定的情况，因此，只有当感染变化表现出稳定的上升或下降方向时，它才会影响风险判断和行为决策。结果表明，需要进行公共卫生干预，以提高流行信息的影响力。
