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粮食作物产量的增长是源于耕地面积的扩大还是单产的提高?中国和印度的比较分析。

Is the boom in staple crop production attributed to expanded cropland or improved yield? A comparative analysis between China and India.

机构信息

School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China; Key Laboratory of the Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 210023, China.

School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China; Key Laboratory of the Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 210023, China; School of Environment Engineering, Nanjing Institute of Technology, Nanjing 211167, China.

出版信息

Sci Total Environ. 2024 Jul 10;933:173151. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173151. Epub 2024 May 10.

DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173151
PMID:38735335
Abstract

The characteristics of cropland development and the dynamics of food production in China and India, the world's largest agricultural and most populous countries, are of great importance to global food security. However, there is a notable lack of a thorough comparison between China and India in this regard. Here, we systematically compare the differences between China and India using cropping intensity and crop production data, including cropland area, harvested area, total staple crop (i.e., cereal crops, tuber crops and pulse crops) production and yield capacity. The results are mainly as follows: (1) Both China and India experienced an increasing trend in cropland area and harvested area from 2001 to 2021, especially notable in India. In China, the cropland area and harvested area increased by 11.76 % and 14.36 %, respectively, while in India, they witnessed a more substantial increase of 31.10 % and 49.32 %, respectively. (2) The cropping intensity underwent significant transformations, primarily shifting between non-cropland, single-cropping, and double-cropping. Northwestern China exhibited a clear trend of non-cropland converting to single-cropping, whereas northeastern China showed a distinct pattern of single-cropping changing to non-cropland. The interconversion between single-cropping and double-cropping was also frequently observed in the main food-producing regions. In India, the cropland expansion and the adoption of double-cropping are highly pronounced, extending widely across most of the country. (3) From 2001 to 2021, the total staple crop production in China and India increased by 34.12 % and 55.81 %, respectively. Despite the rapid growth in India's total staple crop production, it still amounts to only about half of China's. The major crops production also showed different trends, China's cereal crops production increased significantly, while tuber and pulse crops production declined, and India's production of cereal, tuber, and pulse crops has all increased (4) China's yield capacity has increased by 17.28 %, while India's has only grown by 4.35 %. Despite the rapid increase in India's total staple crop production, the yield gap with China has widened. The boost in China's total staple crop production mainly resulted from improved yield capacity, whereas India relied more on the cropland area expansion, especially the increase in harvested area. Our comprehensive comparison of China and India in cropland development and staple crop production contributes to a deep understanding of the differences in agricultural production between the two countries, and provides lessons for global food security and sustainable agricultural development.

摘要

耕地发展特征和中印两国粮食生产动态对全球粮食安全至关重要。然而,在这方面,中印两国之间缺乏彻底的比较。在这里,我们使用复种指数和作物产量数据系统地比较了中国和印度之间的差异,包括耕地面积、收获面积、主要粮食作物(即谷物作物、薯类作物和豆类作物)的总产量和产能。结果主要如下:(1)2001 年至 2021 年,中国和印度的耕地面积和收获面积均呈增长趋势,印度的增长尤为明显。中国的耕地面积和收获面积分别增长了 11.76%和 14.36%,而印度则分别增长了 31.10%和 49.32%。(2)复种指数发生了显著变化,主要在非耕地、单作和双作之间转换。中国西北部地区明显呈现出非耕地向单作转换的趋势,而中国东北部地区则表现出单作向非耕地转换的明显模式。主要粮食产区也经常出现单作和双作之间的相互转换。在印度,耕地扩张和采用双作的情况非常显著,广泛分布在该国大部分地区。(3)2001 年至 2021 年,中国和印度的主要粮食作物总产量分别增长了 34.12%和 55.81%。尽管印度的主要粮食作物总产量增长迅速,但仍仅为中国的一半左右。主要作物产量也呈现出不同的趋势,中国的谷物作物产量显著增加,而薯类和豆类作物产量下降,印度的谷物、薯类和豆类作物产量都有所增加。(4)中国的产能增长了 17.28%,而印度仅增长了 4.35%。尽管印度的主要粮食作物总产量增长迅速,但与中国的差距仍在扩大。中国主要粮食作物总产量的增长主要得益于产能的提高,而印度则更多地依赖耕地面积的扩大,特别是收获面积的增加。我们对中国和印度在耕地发展和主要粮食作物生产方面的综合比较,有助于深入了解两国农业生产的差异,并为全球粮食安全和可持续农业发展提供经验教训。

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