Department of Urology, Prostate & Andrology Key Laboratory of Baoding, Baoding No. 1 Central Hospital, No. 320 Changcheng North Street, Lianchi District, Baoding, 071000, Hebei, China.
Eur J Med Res. 2023 Feb 2;28(1):61. doi: 10.1186/s40001-022-00970-y.
This study is to examine the predictors of survival and to construct a nomogram for predicting the overall survival (OS) of primary bladder signet ring cell carcinoma (SRCC) patients based on the analysis of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.
A total of 219 eligible patients diagnosed with SRCC were analyzed using the 2004-2015 data from SEER database. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression were used to determine independent prognostic factors, followed by development of a nomogram based on the multivariate Cox regression models. The consistency index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration curve were used to validate the prognostic nomogram.
The nomograms indicated appreciable accuracy in predicting the OS, with C-index of 0.771 and 0.715, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram was 0.713 for 1 year, 0.742 for 3 years, and 0.776 for 5 years in the training set, while was 0.730 for 1 year, 0.727 for 3 years, and 0.697 for 5 years in the validation set. The calibration curves revealed satisfactory consistency between the prediction of deviation correction and ideal reference line.
The prognostic nomogram developed in the analytical data of SEER it provided high accuracy and reliability in predicting the survival outcomes of primary bladder SRCC patients and could be used to comprehensively assess the risk of SRCC. Moreover, they could enable clinicians to make more precise treatment decisions for primary bladder SRCC patients.
本研究旨在探讨影响生存的预测因素，并基于 SEER 数据库的分析，构建一个列线图来预测原发性膀胱印戒细胞癌（SRCC）患者的总生存期（OS）。
共分析了 219 例符合条件的 SRCC 患者，这些患者的数据来自 SEER 数据库 2004-2015 年的资料。采用单因素和多因素 Cox 回归分析确定独立的预后因素，然后根据多因素 Cox 回归模型构建列线图。一致性指数（C 指数）、接收者操作特征（ROC）曲线和校准曲线用于验证预测列线图的准确性。
列线图在预测 OS 方面具有相当高的准确性，C 指数分别为 0.771 和 0.715。在训练集中，列线图的曲线下面积（AUC）分别为 1 年时 0.713、3 年时 0.742 和 5 年时 0.776，在验证集中，AUC 分别为 1 年时 0.730、3 年时 0.727 和 5 年时 0.697。校准曲线显示了预测偏差校正与理想参考线之间的良好一致性。
在 SEER 分析数据中开发的预后列线图在预测原发性膀胱 SRCC 患者的生存结果方面具有较高的准确性和可靠性，可以用于全面评估 SRCC 的风险。此外，它们可以使临床医生为原发性膀胱 SRCC 患者做出更精确的治疗决策。
