Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of the Western Cape, Bellville, South Africa.
PLoS One. 2023 Feb 3;18(2):e0264863. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0264863. eCollection 2023.
The unanticipated continued deep-rooted trend of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona-virus-2 the originator pathogen of the COVID-19 persists posing concurrent anxiety globally. More effort is affixed in the scientific arena via continuous investigations in a prolific effort to understand the transmission dynamics and control measures in eradication of the epidemic. Both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical containment measure protocols have been assimilated in this effort. In this study, we develop a modified SEIR deterministic model that factors in alternative-amalgamation of use of COVID Alert SA app and vaccination against the COVID-19 to the Republic of South Africa's general public in an endeavor to discontinue the chain of spread for the pandemic. We analyze the key properties of the model not limited to positivity, boundedness, and stability. We authenticate the model by fitting it to the Republic of South Africa's cumulative COVID-19 cases reported data utilizing the Maximum Likelihood Estimation algorithm implemented in fitR package. Sensitivity analysis and simulations for the model reveal that simultaneously-gradually increased implementation of the COVID Alert SA app use and vaccination against COVID-19 to the public substantially accelerate reduction in the plateau number of COVID-19 infections across all the observed vaccine efficacy scenarios. More fundamentally, it is discovered that implementing at least 12% app use (mainly for the susceptible population not vaccinated) with simultaneous vaccination of over 12% of the susceptible population majorly not using the app using a vaccine of at least 50% efficacy would be sufficient in eradicating the pandemic over relatively shorter time span.
严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2(COVID-19 的病原体)的出人意料的持续根深蒂固的趋势仍然存在,这在全球范围内引起了持续的焦虑。通过不断的调查,科学界投入了更多的努力,以了解传播动态和控制措施,从而消除疫情。在这一努力中,同时采用了药物和非药物控制措施协议。在这项研究中,我们开发了一个修改后的 SEIR 确定性模型,该模型考虑了 COVID Alert SA 应用程序的替代组合使用和针对 COVID-19 的疫苗接种,以努力中断南非共和国公众中疫情的传播链。我们分析了模型的关键特性,不仅限于正定性、有界性和稳定性。我们通过使用 fitR 包中的最大似然估计算法拟合南非共和国报告的 COVID-19 累计病例数据来验证模型。对模型的敏感性分析和模拟表明,同时逐步增加 COVID Alert SA 应用程序的使用和对公众的 COVID-19 疫苗接种,在所有观察到的疫苗有效性情况下,都会大大加速 COVID-19 感染人数的减少。更根本的是,发现实施至少 12%的应用程序使用(主要针对未接种疫苗的易感人群),同时对至少 12%的未使用该应用程序的易感人群进行疫苗接种,使用至少 50%有效性的疫苗,将足以在相对较短的时间内消除疫情。