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缓解刚果民主共和国新冠疫情经济影响的数学模型。

Mathematical model for the mitigation of the economic effects of the Covid-19 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

机构信息

Department of Mathematics and Physics, Institut Supérieur Pédagogique de Bukavu, Bukavu, South-Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2021 May 3;16(5):e0250775. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250775. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

Since the apparition of the SRAS-Cov-2 in Wuhan in China, several countries have set diverse measures to stop its spread. Measures envisaged include national or local lockdown and travels ban. In the DRC, these measures have seriously prejudiced the economy of the country which is mainly informal. In this paper, a mathematical model for the spread of Covid-19 in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) taking into account the vulnerability of congolese economy is proposed. To mitigate the spreading of the virus no national lockdown is proposed, only individuals affected by the virus or suspicious are quarantined. The reproduction number for the Covid-19 is calculated and numerical simulations are performed using Python software. A clear advice for policymakers is deduced from the forecasting of the model.

摘要

自 2019 年在中国武汉出现新型冠状病毒(SARS-CoV-2)以来,许多国家已采取多种措施来阻止其传播。这些措施包括国家或地方封锁以及旅行禁令。在刚果民主共和国(DRC),这些措施严重损害了主要以非正规经济为主的国家经济。在本文中,我们提出了一个考虑到刚果经济脆弱性的数学模型,用于研究刚果民主共和国的新冠病毒(Covid-19)传播。为了减轻病毒的传播,我们不建议进行国家封锁,只有受病毒感染或疑似感染的个人才需要隔离。我们计算了新冠病毒的繁殖数,并使用 Python 软件进行了数值模拟。我们从模型预测中得出了对政策制定者的明确建议。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bf92/8092783/67a7df406fed/pone.0250775.g001.jpg

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