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基于炎症标志物的胃癌总生存预测新型列线图的开发与验证

Development and validation of a novel nomogram for predicting overall survival in gastric cancer based on inflammatory markers.

作者信息

Luo Pan-Quan, Song En-Dong, Liu Fei, Rankine Abigail N, Zhang Li-Xiang, Wei Zhi-Jian, Han Wen-Xiu, Xu A-Man

机构信息

Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230022, Anhui Province, China.

Faculty of Medical Technology, Ophthalmology Laboratory, Anhui Medical College, Hefei 230601, Anhui Province, China.

出版信息

World J Gastrointest Surg. 2023 Jan 27;15(1):49-59. doi: 10.4240/wjgs.v15.i1.49.

DOI:10.4240/wjgs.v15.i1.49
PMID:36741063
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9896496/
Abstract

BACKGROUND

Nearly 66% of occurrences of gastric cancer (GC), which has the second-highest death rate of all cancers, arise in developing countries. In several cancers, the predictive significance of inflammatory markers has been established.

AIM

To identify clinical characteristics and develop a specific nomogram to determine overall survival for GC patients.

METHODS

Nine hundred and four GC patients treated at the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University between January 2010 and January 2013 were recruited. Prognostic risk variables were screened for Cox analysis. The C index, receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate the nomogram.

RESULTS

Tumor node metastasis stage, carcinoembryonic antigen, systemic immune-inflammation index, and age were identified as independent predictive variables by multivariate analysis. Systemic immune-inflammation index value was superior to that of other inflammatory indicators. The ROC indicated the nomogram had a higher area under the curve than other factors, and its C-index for assessing the validation and training groups of GC patients was extremely reliable.

CONCLUSION

We created a novel nomogram to forecast the prognosis of GC patients following curative gastrectomy based on blood markers and other characteristics. Both surgeons and patients can benefit significantly from this new scoring system.

摘要

背景

胃癌(GC)的死亡率在所有癌症中排名第二,近66%的病例发生在发展中国家。在几种癌症中,炎症标志物的预测意义已得到确立。

目的

确定胃癌患者的临床特征,并开发一种特定的列线图来确定其总生存期。

方法

招募了2010年1月至2013年1月在安徽医科大学第一附属医院接受治疗的904例胃癌患者。筛选预后风险变量进行Cox分析。使用C指数、受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线和决策曲线分析来评估列线图。

结果

多因素分析确定肿瘤淋巴结转移分期、癌胚抗原、全身免疫炎症指数和年龄为独立预测变量。全身免疫炎症指数值优于其他炎症指标。ROC显示列线图的曲线下面积高于其他因素,其用于评估胃癌患者验证组和训练组的C指数非常可靠。

结论

我们创建了一种新型列线图,以根据血液标志物和其他特征预测胃癌患者根治性胃切除术后的预后。外科医生和患者都可以从这个新的评分系统中显著受益。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/727d/9896496/f4e4c3a276d0/WJGS-15-49-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/727d/9896496/1260458c43d9/WJGS-15-49-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/727d/9896496/a77cbbe14a06/WJGS-15-49-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/727d/9896496/b7259d8c00cb/WJGS-15-49-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/727d/9896496/817079ab43aa/WJGS-15-49-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/727d/9896496/0ae320da1438/WJGS-15-49-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/727d/9896496/f4e4c3a276d0/WJGS-15-49-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/727d/9896496/1260458c43d9/WJGS-15-49-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/727d/9896496/a77cbbe14a06/WJGS-15-49-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/727d/9896496/b7259d8c00cb/WJGS-15-49-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/727d/9896496/817079ab43aa/WJGS-15-49-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/727d/9896496/0ae320da1438/WJGS-15-49-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/727d/9896496/f4e4c3a276d0/WJGS-15-49-g006.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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Global burden of cancer in 2020 attributable to alcohol consumption: a population-based study.2020 年全球归因于酒精消费的癌症负担:一项基于人群的研究。
Lancet Oncol. 2021 Aug;22(8):1071-1080. doi: 10.1016/S1470-2045(21)00279-5.
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Association of Preoperative Serum Carcinoembryonic Antigen and Gastric Cancer Recurrence: A Large Cohort Study.术前血清癌胚抗原与胃癌复发的关联:一项大型队列研究
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